IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v12y2005i11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantin Arbeev

    (Duke University)

  • Svetlana Ukraintseva

    (Duke University)

  • Lyubov S. Arbeeva

    (Ulyanovsk State University)

  • Anatoli Yashin

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Analysis of age-specific trajectories of cancer incidence rates for all sites combined (data source: International Agency for Research on Cancer) reveals a leveling-off and decline of the rates at old ages in different countries and time periods. We apply a non-linear age-period-cohort model (James and Segal 1982) to obtain declining cancer incidence rates at old ages. The age effects are represented by a power function of age in accordance with a multistage model of carcinogenesis (Armitage and Doll 1954). Applications to cancer incidence in England and Wales, Japan (Miyagi prefecture) and the USA (New York State and San Francisco) illustrate the approach. Further topics of research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(11), pages 273-300.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:11
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/11/12-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.11?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(10), pages 237-272.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kosei Fukuda, 2008. "Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(4), pages 385-402, August.
    2. Patrick M. Krueger & Samuel Preston, 2008. "Cohort fertility patterns and breast cancer mortality among U.S. women, 1948-2003," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(9), pages 263-284.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui Zheng, 2014. "Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1295-1317, August.
    2. Maxim Finkelstein, 2012. "Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(9), pages 191-206.
    3. Yue, Jack C. & Wang, Hsin-Chung & Leong, Yin-Yee & Su, Wei-Ping, 2018. "Using Taiwan National Health Insurance Database to model cancer incidence and mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 316-324.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cancer; age-period-cohort models; incidence; multistage theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.