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Development of the Bulgarian Insurance Market - Crisis Challenges of the Decade

Author

Listed:
  • Stoyan Prodanov

    (D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics)

  • Stefan Stanimirov

    (D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics)

Abstract

The present study focuses on the development of the Bulgarian insurance market in the second decade of the XX century. It examines the issues of the relationship between the global financial sector, insurance and the phases of economic cycles; the debate on the importance of the financial sector and insurance for the economic development; the establishment of correlations and dependencies between the dynamics of GDP and the dynamics of the Gross Premium Income (GPI) in the general insurance sector in Bulgaria for the period 2007-2019, presenting prospective reflections and assessment of the impact of the global pandemic COVID-19 on the Bulgarian insurance market. The linear model in a realistic scenario forecasts a decline in GPI of 18.2%, in a GDP decline of 9.0%. An additional assessment and forecast made using the model is that a decrease between 12.4% and 25% of GPI from the compulsory motor third party liability insurance (at the indicated level of GDP decline) will have a destructive effect on the Bulgarian model of general insurance, due to the impossibility to perform the social functions of this insurance such as the protection of victims of road accidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoyan Prodanov & Stefan Stanimirov, 2020. "Development of the Bulgarian Insurance Market - Crisis Challenges of the Decade," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 2 Year 20, pages 14-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:dat:earchi:y:2020:i:2:p:14-29
    as

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10610/4346
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; insurance market; general insurance; motor third party liability; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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