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Postestimation Uncertainty in Limited Dependent Variable Models

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  • Herron, Michael C.

Abstract

Many political science research articles that use limited dependent variable models report estimated quantities, in particular, fitted probabilities, predicted probabilities, and functions of such probabilities, without indicating that such estimates are subject to uncertainty. This practice, along with the reporting of “percentage correctly predicted,” can overstate the precision of reported results. In light of this, the present article describes a variety of measures of uncertainty that authors can include alongside estimates generated by limited dependent variable models. It also proposes an alternative to “percentage correctly predicted” and illustrates its calculations with congressional cosponsorship data from Krehbiel (1995).

Suggested Citation

  • Herron, Michael C., 1999. "Postestimation Uncertainty in Limited Dependent Variable Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 83-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:8:y:1999:i:01:p:83-98_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Wonik, 2008. "Enfranchisement and the welfare state: Institutional design of unemployment compensation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1660-1678, August.
    2. Na Li & Richard J. Vyn & Ken McEwan, 2016. "To Invest or Sell? The Impacts of Ontario’s Greenbelt on Farm Exit and Investment Decisions," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 389-412.
    3. Assefa Belay, 2023. "Determinants of Investment in the Manufacturing Sector: A Micro Level Analysis on the Example of Injibara," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 13(3), pages 76-95.
    4. Ivan A. Guitart & Guillaume Hervet & Sarah Gelper, 2020. "Competitive advertising strategies for programmatic television," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 753-775, July.
    5. Lucia Bird, 2023. "Motivations of diaspora support in homeland civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 226-242, March.
    6. Özgür Asar & Ozlem Ilk, 2016. "First-order marginalised transition random effects models with probit link function," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 925-942, April.
    7. María Jesús Mancebón & Domingo P. Ximénez-de-Embún & Mauro Mediavilla & José María Gómez-Sancho, 2019. "Does the educational management model matter? New evidence from a quasiexperimental approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 107-135, January.
    8. Andrew K. Marondedze & Brigitta Schütt, 2019. "Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Harare, Zimbabwe: A Case Study on the Linkage between Drivers and the Axis of Urban Expansion," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Bédard, 2015. "The Mobilization of Scientific Evidence by Public Policy Analysts," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(3), pages 21582440156, September.

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