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Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model

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  • Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.
  • De Boef, Suzanna
  • Joyce, Kyle A.

Abstract

We introduce the conditional frailty model, an event history model that separates and accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity in repeated events processes. Event dependence and heterogeneity create within-subject correlation in event times thereby violating the assumptions of standard event history models. Simulations show the advantage of the conditional frailty model. Specifically they demonstrate the model's ability to disentangle the sources of within-subject correlation as well as the gains in both efficiency and bias of the model when compared to the widely used alternatives, which often produce conflicting conclusions. Two substantive political science problems illustrate the usefulness and interpretation of the model: state policy adoption and terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. & De Boef, Suzanna & Joyce, Kyle A., 2007. "Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 237-256, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:15:y:2007:i:03:p:237-256_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Hallerberg & Carlos Scartascini, 2015. "When Do Governments Improve Fiscal Institutions? Lessons from Financial Crisis and Fiscal Reform in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 41-76, October.
    2. Mark Hallerberg & Carlos Scartascini, 2011. "Economic Crisis and Fiscal Reforms in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4697, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Kyle Beardsley, 2008. "Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 723-740, October.
    4. Darcillon, Thibault, 2015. "Corporate governance reforms and political partisanship: an empirical analysis in 16 OECD countries," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 661-696, December.
    5. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2016. "Can I stay a BIT longer? The effect of bilateral investment treaties on political survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 477-521, December.
    6. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2017. "Path dependent and heterogeneity effects in investment risk ratings: A cross-country evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 19-35.
    7. Fernandez, Juan J., 2010. "Economic crises, high public pension spending and blame-avoidance strategies: Pension policy retrenchments in 14 social-insurance countries, 1981 - 2005," MPIfG Discussion Paper 10/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    8. Stine, William F., 2010. "Estimating the Determinants of Property Reassessment Duration: An Empirical Study of Pennsylvania Counties," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2), pages 1-17.
    9. Thibault Darcillon, 2011. "Political Partisanship and Financial Reforms in Advanced Countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11063, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Frank R Baumgartner & Janet M Box-Steffensmeier & Benjamin W Campbell, 2018. "Event dependence in U.S. executions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, January.
    11. Narayan Ramasubbu & Chris F. Kemerer, 2016. "Technical Debt and the Reliability of Enterprise Software Systems: A Competing Risks Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1487-1510, May.
    12. Allan Dafoe, 2018. "Nonparametric Identification of Causal Effects under Temporal Dependence," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 47(2), pages 136-168, March.
    13. Nadav G. Shelef, 2020. "How Homelands Change," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(2-3), pages 490-517, February.

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