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Tail Risk and the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Expected Returns

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  • Karagiannis, Nikolaos
  • Tolikas, Konstantinos

Abstract

We test for the presence of a tail risk premium in the cross-section of mutual fund returns and find that the top tail risk quintile of funds outperforms the bottom by 4.4% per annum. This premium is not simply a reward for market risk, nor do commonly used risk factors offer an adequate explanation. Our findings hold across double-sorted portfolios formed on tail risk and a number of fund characteristics. We also find that funds susceptible to tail risk tend to be small, young, have high management fees, and have managers who do not risk their own capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Karagiannis, Nikolaos & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2019. "Tail Risk and the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 425-447, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:01:p:425-447_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Mohammad Rahim & Karim, Sitara & Assaf, Rima, 2023. "Tail risk transmission in technology-driven markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu & Li, Weishu, 2021. "Do fund managers time implied tail risk? — Evidence from Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Cui, Wei & Yao, Juan, 2020. "Funds of hedge funds: Are they really the high society for little guys?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 346-361.
    4. Yu, Bin & Shen, Yifan & Jin, Xuejun & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Does prospect theory explain mutual fund performance? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Zhang, Ning & Zhang, Yue & Zong, Zhe, 2023. "Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Yang, Liuyong & Long, Yijia & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Is tail risk priced in the cross-section of Chinese mutual fund returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Milian Bachem & Lerby Ergun & Casper de Vries, 2021. "Covariates Hiding in the Tails," Staff Working Papers 21-45, Bank of Canada.
    8. Linda Mhalla & Julien Hambuckers & Marie Lambert, 2022. "Extremal connectedness of hedge funds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 988-1009, August.
    9. Chen, Xi & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi & Wu, Di, 2024. "Extreme illiquidity and cross-sectional corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Juan C. Reboredo & Luis A. Otero González, 2022. "Low carbon transition risk in mutual fund portfolios: Managerial involvement and performance effects," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 950-968, March.
    11. Fjærvik, Thomas, 2023. "Crash risk in the Nordic Stock Market - a cross-sectional analysis," Discussion Papers 2023/5, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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