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Acquirer Valuation and Acquisition Decisions: Identifying Mispricing Using Short Interest

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  • Ben-David, Itzhak
  • Drake, Michael S.
  • Roulstone, Darren T.

Abstract

We use short interest as an investor-based measure of over- or undervaluation that distinguishes between the misvaluation and Q-theories of mergers. Using this measure, we find that misvaluation is a strong determinant of merger decision-making. Firms in the top quintile of short interest are 54% more likely to engage in stock acquisitions and 22% less likely to engage in cash acquisitions. Stock (but not cash) acquirers have higher short interest than their targets. Overall, our results suggest that the previously documented underperformance of stock acquirers and the overperformance of cash acquirers can be explained by misvaluation, as captured by short interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-David, Itzhak & Drake, Michael S. & Roulstone, Darren T., 2015. "Acquirer Valuation and Acquisition Decisions: Identifying Mispricing Using Short Interest," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 1-32, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:1-2:p:1-32_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Shaojie & Pu, Xiaoling, 2020. "Mispricing or growth? an empirical analysis of acquisition premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Song, Sangcheol & Zeng, Yuping & Zhou, Bing, 2021. "Information asymmetry, cross-listing, and post-M&A performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 447-457.
    3. Archana Jain & Chinmay Jain & Ashok Robin, 2020. "Does accounting conservatism deter short sellers?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1075-1100, April.
    4. Jie (Jack) He & Tingting Liu & Jeffry Netter & Tao Shu, 2020. "Expectation Management in Mergers and Acquisitions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1205-1226, March.
    5. Franzoni, Francesco & Ben-David, Itzhak & Kim, Byungwook & Moussawi, Rabih, 2021. "Competition for Attention in the ETF Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 15762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kent Daniel & Alexander Klos & Simon Rottke, 2018. "The Dynamics of Disagreement," NBER Working Papers 25346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul A. Griffin & Hyun A. Hong & Ivalina Kalcheva & Jeong‐Bon Kim, 2022. "Shorting activity and stock return predictability: Evidence from a mandatory disclosure shock," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 27-71, March.
    8. Harrison Liu & Edward P. Swanson, 2015. "Is Price Support for Overvalued Equity a Motive for Increasing Share Repurchases?," Working Papers 0171acc, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    9. Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2015. "The Post-Acquisition Returns of Stock Deals: Evidence of the Pervasiveness of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 477-507, June.
    10. Liu, Harrison & Swanson, Edward P., 2016. "Is price support a motive for increasing share repurchases?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 77-91.
    11. Patrice Fontaine & Sujiao Zhao, 2021. "Suppliers as financial intermediaries: Trade credit for undervalued firms," Post-Print hal-03507994, HAL.
    12. Renneboog, Luc & Vansteenkiste, Cara, 2019. "Failure and success in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 650-699.
    13. Eckbo, B. Espen & Makaew, Tanakorn & Thorburn, Karin S., 2018. "Are stock-financed takeovers opportunistic?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 443-465.
    14. Gu, Ming & Li, Dongxu & Ni, Xiaoran, 2022. "Too much to learn? The (un)intended consequences of RegTech development on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Debarati Bhattacharya & Wei-Hsien Li, 2020. "Wealth effects of relative firm value in M&A deals: reallocation of physical versus intangible assets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1513-1548, November.
    16. Li, Di & Taylor, Lucian A. & Wang, Wenyu, 2018. "Inefficiencies and externalities from opportunistic acquirers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 265-290.
    17. Michael Klitzka & Jianan He & Dirk Schiereck, 2022. "The rationality of M&A targets in the choice of payment methods," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 933-967, May.
    18. Autore, Don M. & Hutton, Irena & Jiang, Danling & Outlaw, Dominque G., 2018. "Short interest as a signal to issue equity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 797-815.
    19. Outlaw, Dominique, 2023. "Frenzied buyers and sophisticated sellers: How short sellers trade individual investors’ most purchased stocks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Hong Zhu & Qi Zhu, 2016. "Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese firms: A review and comparison with other mergers and acquisitions research in the leading journals," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1107-1149, December.
    21. Dutordoir, Marie & Strong, Norman C. & Sun, Ping, 2022. "Does short-selling potential influence merger and acquisition payment choice?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 761-779.
    22. Qi, Qingyu & Uchida, Konari & Liu, Jianlei, 2024. "Do stock swap bidders suspend their stock trading? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    23. Surendranath Jory & Thanh Ngo & Jurica Susnjara, 2020. "Stock mergers and acquirers’ subsequent stock price crash risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 359-387, January.
    24. Lee, Sangwon & Yerramilli, Vijay, 2022. "Reference prices, relative values, and the timing of M&A announcements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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