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Parameter Uncertainty in Multiperiod Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs

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  • DeMiguel, Victor
  • Martín-Utrera, Alberto
  • Nogales, Francisco J.

Abstract

We study the impact of parameter uncertainty on the expected utility of a multiperiod investor subject to quadratic transaction costs. We characterize the utility loss associated with ignoring parameter uncertainty, and show that it is equal to the product between the single-period utility loss and another term that captures the effects of the multiperiod mean-variance utility and transaction cost losses. To mitigate the impact of parameter uncertainty, we propose two multiperiod shrinkage portfolios and demonstrate with simulated and empirical data sets that they substantially outperform portfolios that ignore parameter uncertainty, transaction costs, or both.

Suggested Citation

  • DeMiguel, Victor & Martín-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J., 2015. "Parameter Uncertainty in Multiperiod Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 1443-1471, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:06:p:1443-1471_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2019. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 221-240.
    2. Chulwoo Han, 2020. "How much should portfolios shrink?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 707-740, September.
    3. Alain Bensoussan & Guiyuan Ma & Chi Chung Siu & Sheung Chi Phillip Yam, 2022. "Dynamic mean–variance problem with frictions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 267-300, April.
    4. Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio choice with return predictability and transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 976-988.
    5. Fan, Minyou & Kearney, Fearghal & Li, Youwei & Liu, Jiadong, 2022. "Momentum and the Cross-section of Stock Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Han, Chulwoo, 2020. "A nonparametric approach to portfolio shrinkage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Pedro Barroso & Jurij-Andrei Reichenecker & Marco J. Menichetti, 2022. "Hedging with an Edge: Parametric Currency Overlay," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 669-689, January.
    8. Kontosakos, Vasileios E. & Hwang, Soosung & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2024. "Long-term dynamic asset allocation under asymmetric risk preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 765-782.
    9. Wang, Jianshen & Taylor, Nick, 2018. "A comparison of static and dynamic portfolio policies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-127.
    10. Huang, Zhenzhen & Wei, Pengyu & Weng, Chengguo, 2024. "Tail mean-variance portfolio selection with estimation risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 218-234.
    11. Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2020. "Optimal investment and consumption with return predictability and execution costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 408-419.
    12. Lassance, Nathan, 2022. "Reconciling mean-variance portfolio theory with non-Gaussian returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 729-740.
    13. Ma, Guiyuan & Siu, Chi Chung & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2022. "Portfolio choice with return predictability and small trading frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Zhang, Jinqing & Jin, Zeyu & An, Yunbi, 2017. "Dynamic portfolio optimization with ambiguity aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 95-109.
    15. Yao, Haixiang & Huang, Jinbo & Li, Yong & Humphrey, Jacquelyn E., 2021. "A general approach to smooth and convex portfolio optimization using lower partial moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Boby Chaitanya Villari & Mohammed Shahid Abdulla, 2017. "Portfolio choice decision making with NBP-effSAMWMIX: A Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandit Algorithm using Naïve Bandit Portfolio Approach," Working papers 219, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    17. Zhou, Deqing, 2020. "Strategic trading with transaction cost in the long run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    18. Lassance, Nathan, 2021. "Maximizing the Out-of-Sample Sharpe Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021013, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    19. Yao, Haixiang & Li, Danping & Wu, Huiling, 2022. "Dynamic trading with uncertain exit time and transaction costs in a general Markov market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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