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Time-Varying Return and Risk in the Corporate Bond Market

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  • Chang, Eric C.
  • Huang, Roger D.

Abstract

This paper examines the pricing of exchange-traded long-term corporate bond portfolios. Observable instruments measuring the term structure of interest rates, levels of bond and stock prices, and a January dummy are found to predict excess returns on corporate bonds. An intertemporal asset pricing model with changing expectations and unobservable factors is then estimated for the predictable excess returns using Hansen's Generalized Method of Moments. The results show that a multibeta linear time-vary ing model of conditional expected returns with constant betas can successfully value corporate bonds. Specifically, the tests indicate the presence of two time-varying hedge portfolios. The data, however, support a single latent variable specification when all January observations are excluded. This result suggests the existence of a strong January seasonal in one of the latent variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Eric C. & Huang, Roger D., 1990. "Time-Varying Return and Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 323-340, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:25:y:1990:i:03:p:323-340_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Credit spreads and the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 279-295.
    2. Wilson, Matthew S., 2020. "Disaggregation and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Abhay Abhyankar & Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "What Drives Corporate Bond Market Betas?," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 157, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    4. B. Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Unro Lee, 2008. "Business conditions and nonrandom walk behaviour of US stocks and bonds returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 659-672.
    5. Jaewon Choi & Matthew P. Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2014. "On the Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Polwitoon, Sirapat & Tawatnuntachai, Oranee, 2006. "Diversification benefits and persistence of US-based global bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2767-2786, October.
    7. Duane Stock, 1992. "The Analytics Of Relative Holding-Period Risks For Bonds," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 253-263, September.
    8. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2013. "The January effect for individual corporate bonds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 69-77.
    9. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Predictions of corporate bond excess returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 123-152.
    10. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    11. Abhyankar, Abhay & Gonzalez, Angelica, 2009. "News and the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 996-1004, June.
    12. Joelle Miffre, 2008. "Conditional Risk Premia in International Government Bond Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 185-204, September.
    13. Abhyankar, Abhay & Klinkowska, Olga & Lee, Soyeon, 2015. "Consumption risk and the cross-section of government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 180-200.
    14. Dritsakis, Nikolaos & Grose, Christos & Kalyvas, Lampros, 2006. "Performance aspects of Greek bond mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-202.
    15. Alejandro Revéiz Hérault, "undated". "Factores determinantes de los márgenes entre bonos del gobierno y bonos corporativos en los Estados Unidos," Lecturas en Finanzas 002710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    18. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 2008. "The factor structure of time-varying conditional volume," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 251-264, March.
    19. Barnhill Jr., Theodore M. & Joutz, Frederick L. & Maxwell, William F., 2000. "Factors affecting the yields on noninvestment grade bond indices: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-86, May.
    20. David R. Gallagher & Elvis Jarnecic, 2002. "The Performance of Active Australian Bond Funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 27(2), pages 163-185, December.

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