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Technology Shocks and the Great Depression

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  • Watanabe, Shingo

Abstract

Standard productivity measures indicate large fluctuations in technology during the Great Depression. This article's historical technology series (1892–1966), controlled for aggregation effects, varying input utilization, non-constant returns, and imperfect competition, does not indicate technology regress such that could trigger the downturn. In contrast, technology improvements in the recovery were so rapid that, over the whole Great Depression period, technology growth was highest among pre-WWII decades. This article also finds that output changed little and inputs fell when technology improved in the pre-WWII period. Real-business-cycle models have difficulty in explaining pre-WWII business cycles characterized by such responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Watanabe, Shingo, 2016. "Technology Shocks and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 909-933, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:76:y:2016:i:03:p:909-933_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristiano Antonelli & Christophe Feder, 2020. "Total factor productivity, catch-up and technological congruence in Italy, 1861–2010," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1171-1194, September.
    2. Nicolai J. Foss, 2021. "The Impact of the Covid‐19 Pandemic on Firms’ Organizational Designs," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 270-274, January.
    3. Damian Clarke & Manuel Llorca Jaña & Daniel Pailañir, 2023. "The use of quantile methods in economic history," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 115-132, April.
    4. Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Olaniran, Abeeb O. & Abolade, Onomeabure C. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula Ephraim, 2023. "Technology shocks - Gold market connection: Is the effect episodic to business cycle behaviour?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O., 2024. "Technology shocks and crude oil market connection: The role of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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