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Pitfalls in the Estimation of the Yield on British Consols, 1850–1914

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  • Klovland, Jan Tore

Abstract

Five pitfalls commonly encountered in estimating the yield on British Consols are identified and discussed herein. The most difficult question is whether Consol prices in the later 1890s reflected expectations of a conversion of the Consol stock in 1923. This is equivalent to asking whether security markets in the 1890s regarded the then extremely low interest rates to be a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Predictions from estimated equations for the yield spread between other high-class investments and Consols are used to determine this question. A corrected monthly series of the yield on Consols between 1850 and 1914 is presented.

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  • Klovland, Jan Tore, 1994. "Pitfalls in the Estimation of the Yield on British Consols, 1850–1914," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 164-187, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:54:y:1994:i:01:p:164-187_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Flandreau, Marc & Chavaz, Matthieu, 2016. "“High & Dry†: The Liquidity and Credit of Colonial and Foreign Government Debt and the London Stock Exchange (1880-1910)," CEPR Discussion Papers 11679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    4. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2017. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86148, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Eric Monnet, 2024. "Interest Rates," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 1531-1549, Springer.
    6. Arola, Mika, 2006. "Foreign capital and Finland: central government's firstperiod of reliance on international financial markets 1862-1938," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_037, July.
    7. Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2020. "Explaining Latin America's persistent defaults: an analysis of the debtor–creditor relations in London, 1822–1914," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 319-339, December.
    8. David A Bogle & Christopher Coyle & John D Turner, 2022. "Capital market development over the long run: the portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries [Corporate ownership and control in Victorian Britain]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 370-398.
    9. Janette Rutterford & David R. Green & Josephine Maltby & Alastair Owens, 2011. "Who comprised the nation of shareholders? Gender and investment in Great Britain, c. 1870–1935," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(1), pages 157-187, February.
    10. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Eoin McLaughlin, 2014. "State dissolution, sovereign debt and default:Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920-1938," Working Papers 0061, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    11. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
    12. Niall Ferguson, 2006. "Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(1), pages 70-112, February.
    13. Gawon Yoon, 2011. "Changing volatility of long-term UK interest rates during Pax Britannica," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 69-74.
    14. Kennedy, William & Delargy, Robert, 2000. "Explaining Victorian entrepreneurship: a cultural problem? A market problem? No problem?," Economic History Working Papers 22377, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    15. Chavaz, Matthieu & Flandreau, Marc, 2015. "‘High and dry’: the liquidity and credit of colonial and foreign government debt in the London Stock Exchange (1880–1910)," Bank of England working papers 555, Bank of England.
    16. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2016. "Sovereign debt guarantees and default: Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920–1938," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 272-286.
    17. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Vaslin, Jacques-Marie, 2023. "Conversion risk on 19th century French consols and embedded options: A simple exercise," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    18. Kevin Dowd & Barry Harrison, 2000. "The Gibson paradox and the Gold Standard: evidence from the United Kingdom, 1821-1913," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(11), pages 711-713.

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