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A retrospective assessment of the costs of EPA’s 1998 Locomotive Emission Standards

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  • Kopits, Elizabeth

Abstract

While the need to update EPA benefit-cost analysis to reflect the most recent science is broadly acknowledged, little work has been done examining how well ex ante BCAs estimate the actual benefits and costs of regulations. This paper adds to the existing literature on ex post cost analyses by examining EPA’s analysis of the 1998 Locomotive Emission Standards. Due to data limitations and minimal ability to construct a reasonable counterfactual for each component of the cost analysis, the assessment relies mainly on industry expert opinion, augmented with ex post information from publicly available data sources when possible. The paper finds that the total cost of bringing line-haul locomotives into compliance with the 1998 Locomotive Emission Standards rule remains uncertain. Even though the initial per-unit locomotive compliance costs were higher than predicted by EPA, total costs also depend on the number of locomotives affected by the regulation. Over 2000–2009, the number of newly built line-haul locomotives was higher but the number of remanufactured line-haul locomotives was lower than EPA’s estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopits, Elizabeth, 2014. "A retrospective assessment of the costs of EPA’s 1998 Locomotive Emission Standards," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 285-314, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jbcoan:v:5:y:2014:i:02:p:285-314_00
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    1. Kopits, Elizabeth & McGartland, Al & Morgan, Cynthia & Pasurka, Carl & Shadbegian, Ron & Simon, Nathalie B. & Simpson, David & Wolverton, Ann, 2014. "Retrospective cost analyses of EPA regulations: a case study approach," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 173-193, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon, Daniel H. & Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Hollingsworth, Alex, 2017. "Estimating Co-pollutant Benefits from Climate Change Policies in the Electricity Sector: An Empirical Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259116, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Fraas, Arthur G. & Kopits, Elizabeth & Wolverton, Ann, 2021. "A Retrospective Review of Retrospective Cost Analyses," RFF Working Paper Series 21-29, Resources for the Future.

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