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Modeling Economic Growth with Unpredictable Shocks: A State-Level Application for 1960-90

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  • Goetz, Stephan J.
  • Ready, Richard C.

Abstract

A Barro-type economic growth model is estimated for the 50 states in the U.S. using data for three decades beginning in 1960. Frontier estimation techniques are used to test for the presence of state-specific shocks to economic growth that are independent of the usual, normally-distributed random errors. We find that large, positive shocks to growth occurred during the period 1960-90. Our results indicate that the error term structure assumed under OLS may not be appropriate for modeling economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Goetz, Stephan J. & Ready, Richard C., 1995. "Modeling Economic Growth with Unpredictable Shocks: A State-Level Application for 1960-90," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 400-408, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:27:y:1995:i:02:p:400-408_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
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    3. Jondrow, James & Knox Lovell, C. A. & Materov, Ivan S. & Schmidt, Peter, 1982. "On the estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 233-238, August.
    4. Jorgenson, Dale W & Yun, Kun-Young, 1990. "Tax Reform and U.S. Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 151-193, October.
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