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Were U.S. Crop Yields Random in Recent Years?

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  • Lin, Kuang-hsing T.
  • Seaver, Stanley K.

Abstract

After three to four decades of substantial increase, yields per acre of major U.S. crops appear to have tapered off. The average annual rate of growth in crop yields decreased markedly from 2.7 percent for the 1950s to 1.8 percent for the 1960s, and finally fell to 0.1 percent for the first half of the 1970s. Scientists commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences to investigate agriculture production efficiency first discovered the problem [6]. Concern about the situation was expressed in the literature early this year by both a plant physiologist and agricultural economists. If a crop yield series has reached and remains on a plateau, it would conform with what is expected in a stationary or trendless series. Therefore, examination of the leveling of crop yields can be accomplished by testing for the presence or absence of a trend in the series.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Kuang-hsing T. & Seaver, Stanley K., 1978. "Were U.S. Crop Yields Random in Recent Years?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 139-142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:10:y:1978:i:02:p:139-142_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Archibald, S.O. & McCorkle, C.O., 1981. "Trends In Productivity Of American Agriculture," Working Papers 225690, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. William T. McSweeny & David E. Kenyon & Randall A. Kramer, 1987. "Toward an Appropriate Measure of Uncertainty in a Risk Programming Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 87-96.
    3. Pope, C. Arden, III, 1981. "The dynamics of crop yields in the U. S. Corn Belt as effected by weather and technological progress," ISU General Staff Papers 198101010800008463, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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