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Profiting from Sanctions: Economic Coercion and US Foreign Direct Investment in Third-Party States

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  • Barry, Colin M.
  • Kleinberg, Katja B.

Abstract

Scholarship on the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has produced valuable insights into the role of host state characteristics and home-host relations. This study draws attention to another factor in investment decisions—the political and economic relations that home and host states maintain with third-party states. More narrowly, we focus on how investors respond to their home-state's imposition of economic sanctions against a trading partner. Greater economic integration has allowed states to use economic sanctions more frequently in recent decades. At the same time, economic sanctions are thought to have a distorting effect on global trade and financial flows as firms and governments adjust to new constraints. We argue that as firms at home in the sanctioning state respond to coercive measures against a trading partner by looking for alternative sources of profit, they will shift investments to states that can provide indirect access to the sanctioned economy. In particular, those states that are perceived as prospective sanctions-busters—major trading partners of the sanctions target or states with a history of sanctions-busting behavior—will benefit disproportionately from the misfortune of others. We test this conjecture using data on US economic sanctions and global flows of US FDI from 1966 to 2000. The findings reveal that investor decision making in part responds to political developments beyond the home-host dyad.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry, Colin M. & Kleinberg, Katja B., 2015. "Profiting from Sanctions: Economic Coercion and US Foreign Direct Investment in Third-Party States," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 881-912, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:69:y:2015:i:04:p:881-912_00
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    Cited by:

    1. David Lektzian & Gor Mkrtchian, 2021. "The effect of sanctions on economic freedom," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2776-2794, November.
    2. Gonchar, Ksenia & Greve, Maria, 2022. "The impact of political risk on FDI exit decisions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    3. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    4. Michal Onderco & Reinout Arthur van der Veer, 2021. "No More Gouda in Moscow? Distributive Effects of the Imposition of Sanctions," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1345-1363, November.
    5. Mike W. Peng & Joyce C. Wang & Nishant Kathuria & Jia Shen & Miranda J. Welbourne Eleazar, 2023. "Toward an institution-based paradigm," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 353-382, June.
    6. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    7. Anirudh Shingal, 2023. "Sanctions and services trade: the neglected dimension," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/39, European University Institute.
    8. Tao Xiong & Wendong Zhang & Fangxiao Zhao, 2023. "When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(4), pages 636-671, October.
    9. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.

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