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Revolution, Personalist Dictatorships, and International Conflict

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  • Colgan, Jeff D.
  • Weeks, Jessica L.P.

Abstract

A consensus exists that countries that have recently undergone domestic political revolutions are particularly likely to become involved in military conflicts with other states. However, scholars seek to understand when and why revolutions increase the likelihood of international violence. In contrast to existing work focusing on international systemic factors, we argue that revolution fosters conflict in part by affecting states’ domestic political structures. Previous research has shown that revolution tends to bring particularly aggressive leaders to power. We demonstrate that revolutions also frequently result in personalist dictatorships, or regimes that lack powerful institutions to constrain and punish leaders. By empowering and ensconcing leaders with revisionist preferences and high risk tolerance, revolutions that result in personalist dictatorships are significantly more likely to lead to international conflict than revolutions that culminate in other forms of government. Our arguments and evidence help explain not only why revolution so commonly leads to conflict, but also why some revolutions lead to conflict whereas others do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Colgan, Jeff D. & Weeks, Jessica L.P., 2015. "Revolution, Personalist Dictatorships, and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 163-194, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:69:y:2015:i:01:p:163-194_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Kosterina, 2017. "Ambition, personalist regimes, and control of authoritarian leaders," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 167-190, April.
    2. Abel Escribà -Folch & Tobias Böhmelt & Ulrich Pilster, 2020. "Authoritarian regimes and civil–military relations: Explaining counterbalancing in autocracies," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(5), pages 559-579, September.
    3. Colin Krainin & John Slinkman, 2017. "Bargaining with a biased autocrat," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 273-298, April.

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