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Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad

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  • Gowa, Joanne

Abstract

This article examines the effects of party politics and presidential election cycles on U.S. recourse to force abroad. I analyze a game-theoretic model to generate predictions about these effects. In the unique time-consistent equilibrium outcome of the one-shot game, policy varies across political parties. In a subgame–perfect equilibrium outcome of the repeated game, the use of force is invariant to the partisan composition of government. In neither case does policy respond to the electoral cycle.An empirical analysis supports the predictions of the repeated game. Between 1870 and 1992, U.S. recourse to force abroad responds neither to partisan politics nor to the domestic political calendar. It responds only to changes in U.S. power status and to the advent of general wars.

Suggested Citation

  • Gowa, Joanne, 1998. "Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 307-324, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:52:y:1998:i:02:p:307-324_44
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    Cited by:

    1. Albornoz, Facundo & Hauk, Esther, 2014. "Civil war and U.S. foreign influence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 64-78.
    2. William D. Baker & John R. Oneal, 2001. "Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 661-687, October.
    3. David Brulé, 2006. "Congressional Opposition, the Economy, and U.S. Dispute Initiation, 1946-2000," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 463-483, August.
    4. Dennis M. Foster, 2006. "State Power, Linkage Mechanisms, and Diversion against Nonrivals," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Jaroslav Tir & Michael Jasinski, 2008. "Domestic-Level Diversionary Theory of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(5), pages 641-664, October.
    6. Benjamin O. Fordham, 2002. "Another Look at “Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroadâ€," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(4), pages 572-596, August.
    7. Randall J. Blimes, 2011. "International Conflict and Leadership Tenure," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans, 2003. "Peace through Insecurity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(4), pages 443-467, August.
    9. Philip B. K. Potter, 2007. "Does Experience Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(3), pages 351-378, June.
    10. CHRISTOPHER SPRECHER & KARL DeROUEN Jr., 2002. "Israeli Military Actions and Internalization-externalization Processes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(2), pages 244-259, April.
    11. Sahuguet, Nicolas & Conconi, Paola, 2005. "Re-election Incentives and the Sustainability of International Cooperation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Sahuguet, Nicolas & Zanardi, Maurizio & Conconi, Paola, 2008. "Democratic Peace and Electoral Accountability¤," CEPR Discussion Papers 6908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Giacomo Chiozza, 2017. "Presidents on the cycle: Elections, audience costs, and coercive diplomacy," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 3-26, January.
    14. Chigozie E. Utazi, 2017. "Bayesian Single Changepoint Estimation in a Parameter-driven Model," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 765-779, September.
    15. Mark Souva, 2005. "Foreign Policy Determinants: Comparing Realist and Domestic-Political Models of Foreign Policy," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, April.
    16. D. Scott Bennett & Timothy Nordstrom, 2000. "Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(1), pages 33-61, February.

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