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Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects

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  • Gallego, Aina
  • Buscha, Franz
  • Sturgis, Patrick
  • Oberski, Daniel

Abstract

Contextual theories of political behaviour assert that the contexts in which people live influence their political beliefs and vote choices. Most studies, however, fail to distinguish contextual influence from self-selection of individuals into areas. This article advances understanding of this controversy by tracking the left–right position and party identification of thousands of individuals over an eighteen-year period in England before and after residential moves across areas with different political orientations. There is evidence of both non-random selection into areas and assimilation of new entrants to the majority political orientation. These effects are contingent on the type of area an individual moves into and contextual effects are weak and dominated by the larger effect of self-selection into areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallego, Aina & Buscha, Franz & Sturgis, Patrick & Oberski, Daniel, 2016. "Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 529-550, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:46:y:2016:i:03:p:529-550_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Su-Min & Alexandru, 2022. "Do Labels Polarise? Theory and Evidence from the Brexit Referendum," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2227, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. McNeil, Andrew & Lee, Neil & Luca, Davide, 2022. "The long shadow of local decline: birthplace economic conditions, political attitudes, and long-term individual economic outcomes in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Wiertz, Dingeman & Rodon, Toni, 2021. "Frozen or malleable? Political ideology in the face of job loss and unemployment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. James G. Gimpel & Iris Hui, 2017. "Inadvertent and intentional partisan residential sorting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 441-468, May.

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