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The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth

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  • PALMER, HARVEY D.
  • WHITTEN, GUY D.

Abstract

This article supports two theoretical changes to models of comparative economic voting. The first is that the distinction between expected and unexpected components of inflation and economic growth is important. We posit that voters are primarily concerned with unexpected inflation and unexpected growth since these changes have real income effects and serve as better indicators of government competence. Empirical analyses of data from nineteen industrialized nations in 1970–94 reveal stronger electoral effects for the unexpected components of inflation and growth than for their overall levels. The second innovation is the relaxation of the assumption of homoscedasticity, which led to the finding that the relationship between economic factors and incumbent vote has become more volatile over time and is less volatile when policy-making responsibility is more obscured.

Suggested Citation

  • Palmer, Harvey D. & Whitten, Guy D., 1999. "The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 623-639, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:29:y:1999:i:04:p:623-639_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Brännlund, Anton, 2021. "Zero per cent accountability? How low interest rates save governments from electoral defeats," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Kenneth J. Meier & Laurence J. O'Toole, 2002. "Public management and organizational performance: The effect of managerial quality," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 629-643.
    3. Doyle, Orla & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 2005. "Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002," IZA Discussion Papers 1719, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Josip Glaurdić & Vuk Vuković, 2015. "Prosperity and peace: Economic interests and war legacy in Croatia’s EU referendum vote," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(4), pages 577-600, December.
    5. Wang, Fangzhi & Liao, Hua, 2022. "Unexpected economic growth and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep15 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Burke Paul J., 2012. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-43, March.
    8. O. Yap, 2011. "Informal accountability, credible actions, and democratization in Taiwan," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 103-121, June.
    9. Joseph McGarrity, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and committee re-election rates," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 453-480, September.
    10. Cohen, Joseph N & Linton, April, 2010. "The historical relationship between inflation and political rebellion, and what it might teach us about neoliberalism," MPRA Paper 22522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:427-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lee, Neil & Pardy, Martina & Mcneil, Andrew, 2024. "The political impact of inflation: a survey experiment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2022. "Life of the party: The polarizing effect of foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Brännlund, Anton & Peterson, Lauri, 2024. "Power politics: How electric grievances shape election outcomes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    15. repec:bla:etrans:v:15:y:2007:i::p:575-601 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.

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