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A Credibility Model with Random Fluctuations in Delay Probabilities for the Prediction of IBNR Claims(*)

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  • Hesselager, Ole
  • Witting, Thomas

Abstract

We consider a general credibility model for the prediction of IBNR-claims which allows for random fluctuations in the underlying delay distribution. Such fluctuations always bring about decreasing credibility. It is shown that even negative credibility is achieved for more substantial fluctuations in the delay distribution. Special attention is paid to the mixed Poisson case for claim numbers including the discussion of parameter estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hesselager, Ole & Witting, Thomas, 1988. "A Credibility Model with Random Fluctuations in Delay Probabilities for the Prediction of IBNR Claims(*)," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 79-90, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:18:y:1988:i:01:p:79-90_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Najafabadi, Amir T. Payandeh & Bazaz, Ali Panahi, 2018. "An optimal multi-layer reinsurance policy under conditional tail expectation," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 130-146, March.
    2. Klaus Schmidt, 2012. "Loss prediction based on run-off triangles," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(2), pages 265-310, June.
    3. Zhao, Xiao Bing & Zhou, Xian & Wang, Jing Long, 2009. "Semiparametric model for prediction of individual claim loss reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, August.
    4. Zhao, XiaoBing & Zhou, Xian, 2010. "Applying copula models to individual claim loss reserving methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 290-299, April.
    5. Payandeh Najafabadi, Amir T. & Bazaz, Ali Panahi, 2016. "An optimal co-reinsurance strategy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 149-155.

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