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Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland

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  • HAGER, ANSELM
  • KRAKOWSKI, KRZYSZTOF

Abstract

Does physical surveillance hinder or foster antiregime resistance? A common view holds that surveillance prevents resistance by providing regimes with high-quality intelligence on dissident networks and by instilling fear in citizens. We contrast this view using formerly classified data from Communist Poland. We find that communities exposed to secret police officers were more likely to organize protests but also engaged in less sabotage. To ensure that the relationship is causal, we use an instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the exogenous assignment of Catholic “spy priests” to local communities. To trace the underlying mechanisms, we draw on qualitative interviews and archival sources. We document that Poland’s comprehensive use of surveillance created widespread anger as well as an incentive for citizens to reveal their true loyalties, thus facilitating antiregime collective action. Once on the streets, protesters refrained from sabotage to signal their political motivation to bystanders and authorities alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Hager, Anselm & Krakowski, Krzysztof, 2022. "Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 564-579, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:116:y:2022:i:2:p:564-579_13
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazrullaeva, Eugenia & Harrison, Mark, 2023. "If You Do Not Change Your Behavior : Preventive Repression in Lithuania under Soviet Rule," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1462, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Felix Kersting, 2022. "Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists," Working Papers 0227, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    3. Krzysztof Krakowski & Max Schaub, 2022. "Elite murder and popular resistance: Evidence from post-World War II Poland," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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