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When Is the Honeymoon Over? National Hockey League Attendance, 1970­2003

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  • John C. Leadley
  • Zenon X. Zygmont

Abstract

This paper uses a Tobit analysis to test for the presence of a honeymoon effect for National Hockey League (NHL) arenas using pooled cross-section time series samples from 1970 to 2003. No previous NHL attendance demand or attendance-related study has tested for such an effect. We estimate that the opening of a new arena increases attendance demand 15 to 20 percent in the first years of operation, and that the honeymoon is over after five years. This is similar in magnitude and duration to the previously estimated effects for new facilities for Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association teams. For the period 1994­2003, when 21 new arenas were constructed, the honeymoon lengthened to eight years. Because many NHL arenas are subsidized, the honeymoon effect has public policy implications if revenue projections for a new arena overestimate the initial effect or ignore the decline over time.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Leadley & Zenon X. Zygmont, 2006. "When Is the Honeymoon Over? National Hockey League Attendance, 1970­2003," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(2), pages 213-232, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:32:y:2006:i:2:p:213-232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "No Novelty Effect but a Honeymoon that Lasts On the Attendance Effects of New Football Stadiums," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-010/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2018. "Team-Level Time Series Analysis in MLB, the NBA, and the NHL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 911-933, October.
    4. John C. Whitehead & Bruce K. Johnson & Daniel S. Mason & Gordon J. Walker, 2013. "Consumption Benefits Of National Hockey League Game Trips Estimated From Revealed And Stated Preference Demand Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 1012-1025, January.
    5. John Charles Bradbury, 2019. "Determinants Of Revenue In Sports Leagues: An Empirical Assessment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 121-140, January.
    6. Sung Il Hong & Michael Mondello & Dennis Coates, 2011. "An Examination of the Effects of the Recent Economic Crisis on Major League Baseball (MLB) Attendance Demand," Working Papers 1123, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    7. Steven Salaga & Alan Ostfield & Jason Winfree, 2014. "Revenue Sharing with Heterogeneous Investments in Sports Leagues: Share Media, Not Stadiums," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-19, August.
    8. John C. Whitehead & Bruce K. Johnson & Daniel S. Mason & Gordon J. Walker, 2009. "Using Revealed and Stated Preference Data to Estimate the Demand and Consumption Benefits of Sporting Events: An Application to National Hockey League Game Trips," Working Papers 09-13, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    9. Brian P Soebbing & Daniel S Mason & Brad R Humphreys, 2016. "Novelty effects and sports facilities in smaller cities: Evidence from Canadian hockey arenas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(8), pages 1674-1690, June.
    10. Brian Mills & Rodney Fort, 2014. "League-Level Attendance And Outcome Uncertainty In U.S. Pro Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 205-218, January.

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