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Oil Prices, Production and Inflation in the Selected EU Countries: Threshold Cointegration Approach

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  • Andrzej Geise

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University)

  • Mariola Pilatowska

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University)

Abstract

This paper applies the threshold cointegration technique developed by Enders and Siklos (2001) to investigate the impact of an oil price changes on changes in production and inflation in the presence of structural break in seven European Union countries. This technique will allow for a different speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium depending on whether production in selected economies is above or below the long-run relationship. Given the presence of asymmetric cointegration between oil prices, production and inflation, we estimate threshold error correction models to examine long- and short-run Granger causality. We found evidence for cointegration with asymmetric adjustment in the case of France, Denmark and the total EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2014. "Oil Prices, Production and Inflation in the Selected EU Countries: Threshold Cointegration Approach," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 71-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:14:y:2014:p:71-91
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    1. Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2016. "Asymmetries in the relationship between economic activity and oil prices in the selected EU countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 65-86.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric adjustment; oil price shocks; threshold cointegration; non-linearity; threshold error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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