IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000442/015652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust Estimation of beta and the hedging ratio in Stock Index Futures In the Integrated Latin American Market

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Gutierrez Betancur

Abstract

This paper examines the effect exerted by outliers in the equity betas in the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA), estimated by two different methods: ordinary least squares (OLS) and robust estimation (RMM). To illustrate the empirical relevance of the estimated betas, we evaluate the hedging ratio using stock index futures. The results indicate that the estimates made by the RMM method provide a better fit and increase the efficiency of a hedging strategy when there are outliers in the estimation window of beta.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Gutierrez Betancur, 2017. "Robust Estimation of beta and the hedging ratio in Stock Index Futures In the Integrated Latin American Market," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 21(44), pages 37-71, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:015652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4412
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. David C. Bowie & David J. Bradfield, 1998. "Robust Estimation of Beta Coefficients: Evidence from a Small Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3&4), pages 439-454.
    3. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    4. Lally, Martin, 1998. "An Examination of Blume and Vasicek Betas," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 183-197, August.
    5. David C. Bowie & David J. Bradfield, 1998. "Robust Estimation of Beta Coefficients: Evidence from a Small Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3‐4), pages 439-454, April.
    6. Kalman J. Cohen & Gabriel A. Hawawini & Steven F. Maier & Robert A. Schwartz & David K. Whitcomb, 1983. "Estimating and Adjusting for the Intervalling-Effect Bias in Beta," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 135-148, January.
    7. Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-795, June.
    8. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    9. Javier Estrada, 2006. "Downside Risk in Practice," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 18(1), pages 117-125, March.
    10. William F. Sharpe, 1971. "Mean-Absolute-Deviation Characteristic Lines for Securities and Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 1-13, October.
    11. Cornell, Bradford & Dietrich, J. Kimball, 1978. "Mean-Absolute-Deviation versus Least-Squares Regression Estimation of Beta Coefficients," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 123-131, March.
    12. Elgers, Pieter T & Haltiner, James R & Hawthorne, William H, 1979. "Beta Regression Tendencies: Statistical and Real Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 261-263, March.
    13. Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1973. "A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1233-1239, December.
    14. Richard D. F. Harris & Jian Shen, 2003. "Robust estimation of the optimal hedge ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 799-816, August.
    15. Cheng-Few Lee & Kehluh Wang & Yan Long Chen, 2009. "Hedging and Optimal Hedge Ratios for International Index Futures Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 593-610.
    16. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Luis E. Pereiro, 2010. "The Beta Dilemma in Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(4), pages 110-122, September.
    18. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    19. Darren Butterworth & Phil Holmes, 2001. "The hedging effectiveness of stock index futures: evidence for the FTSE-100 and FTSE-mid250 indexes traded in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68.
    20. Sibel Celik, 2013. "Testing the Stability of Beta: A Sectoral Analysis in Turkish Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(1), pages 18-23.
    21. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    22. Jonathan J. Reeves & Haifeng Wu, 2013. "Constant versus Time‐Varying Beta Models: Further Forecast Evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 256-266, April.
    23. Blume, Marshall E, 1979. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies: Some Further Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 265-267, March.
    24. Fong, Wai Mun, 1997. "Robust beta estimation: Some empirical evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-186.
    25. Blume, Marshall E, 1971. "On the Assessment of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, March.
    26. Marc G. Genton & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2008. "Robust Prediction of Beta," Springer Books, in: Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes & Berç Rustem & Peter Winker (ed.), Computational Methods in Financial Engineering, pages 147-161, Springer.
    27. Hooper, Vincent J. & Ng, Kevin & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2008. "Quarterly beta forecasting: An evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 480-489.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2022. "Systematic Risk of ESG Companies Listed on the Polish Capital Market in 2019-2022," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 597-615.
    2. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2021. "Estimation, Instability, and Non-Stationarity of Beta Coefficients for Twenty-four Emerging Markets in 2005-2021," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 370-395.
    3. Dmitry Bazhutov & André Betzer & Richard Stehle, 2023. "Beta estimation in the European network regulation context: what matters, what doesn’t, and what is indispensable," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(3), pages 239-275, September.
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2007. "Forward-Looking Betas," CREATES Research Papers 2007-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Masih, Mansur & Alzahrani, Mohammed & Al-Titi, Omar, 2010. "Systematic risk and time scales: New evidence from an application of wavelet approach to the emerging Gulf stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 10-18, January.
    6. Gabriel A. Hawawini & Ashok Vora, 1982. "Investment Horizon, Diversification, And The Efficiency Of Alternative Beta Forecasts," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Dana J. Johnson & Richard E. Bennett & Richard J. Curcio, 1979. "A Note On The Deceptive Nature Of Bayesian Forecasted Betas," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-69, March.
    8. Malevergne, Y. & Sornette, D., 2007. "Self-consistent asset pricing models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 149-171.
    9. Joe Hirschberg & Jenny Lye, 2021. "Estimating risk premiums for regulated firms when accounting for reference-day variation and high-order moments of return volatility," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 455-467, September.
    10. Sebastien Valeyre & Sofiane Aboura & Denis Grebenkov, 2019. "The Reactive Beta Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 71-113, March.
    11. Gangemi, Michael & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 1999. "Mean reversion and the forecasting of country betas: a note," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 231-245.
    12. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
    13. Chris Tofallis, 2011. "Investment Volatility: A Critique of Standard Beta Estimation and a Simple Way Forward," Papers 1109.4422, arXiv.org.
    14. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Josev, Thomas, 1997. "The impact of the return interval on the estimation of systematic risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, July.
    15. Theodossiou, Alexandra K. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2014. "Stock return outliers and beta estimation: The case of U.S. pharmaceutical companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 153-171.
    16. Dimson, Elroy & Mussavian, Massoud, 1999. "Three centuries of asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1745-1769, December.
    17. Tofallis, Chris, 2008. "Investment volatility: A critique of standard beta estimation and a simple way forward," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1358-1367, June.
    18. Robert W. Kolb & Ricardo J. Rodriguez, 1990. "Is The Distribution Of Betas Stationary?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 279-283, December.
    19. Omar Gharaibeh & Graham Bornholt & Michael Dempsey, 2014. "Evidence on Industry Cost of Equity Estimators," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15.
    20. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & de Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2017. "Beta forecasting at long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 936-957.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation of beta; robust statistics MM (RMM); ordinary least squares (OLS); hedging ratio with stock MILA market index futures.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000442:015652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valor Público EAFIT - Centro de estudios e incidencia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deafico.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.