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Fluctuaciones económicas en una economía pequena con dos sectores productivos bajo régimen de cambio flotante

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  • José Ustorgio Mora Mora

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta un modelo teórico de oferta y demanda agregada en una economía pequena con dos sectores productivos, bajo un régimen de cambio flexible y movilidad imperfecta de capitales. Se supone que solo uno de los sectores productivos produce un bien exportable que se vende a precios determinados en el mercado mundial, mientras que la producción del otro sector abastece el mercado interno. Este modelo permite explicar la propagación de los efectos de shocks internos (política económica, productividad, etc.) y externos (alteraciones en los términos de intercambio). Los resultados muestran que el producto real aumenta en todos los casos considerados y que estos son consistentes con los postulados por la teoría económica. No obstante, los efectos sobre el nivel de precios, la tasa de cambio y la tasa de interés real son variados. Desde el punto de vista de los shocks domésticos se puede apreciar que la política fiscal o la política monetaria pueden ser utilizadas para estabilizar o estimular la economía pero los costos de hacerlo elevan el nivel de precios. ***** This paper presents a theoretical model of aggregate supply and demand in a small economy with two productive sectors, under a flexible exchange regime and imperfect capital mobility. Only one of the production sectors is assumed to produce an exportable commodity sold at world market prices, while the production of the other sector is assumed to supply the domestic market. This model helps to explain how the impact of both domestic (economic policy, productivity, etc.) and foreign (changes in exchange terms) shocks is spread. In every case studied, results show that real output increases consistently with those cases postulated by economic theory. Conversely, the effects on the price level, the exchange rate and the real interest rate are ambiguous. In terms of domestic shocks, fiscal or monetary policy may be seen as a way to stabilize or stimulate the economy but the costs involved raise the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ustorgio Mora Mora, 2013. "Fluctuaciones económicas en una economía pequena con dos sectores productivos bajo régimen de cambio flotante," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:011609
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    File URL: http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/2157/2152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Francisco J. Sáez & Luis A. Puch, 2003. "Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0301, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mora, Jose U Mora & Acevedo, Rafael A, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Effects and Capital Mobility in Latin American Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188.
    2. José U Mora & Rafael A Acevedo, 2018. "Modelo de Desarrollo Propio y su Potencial para la Construcción de Paz Territorial," Working Papers 39, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos económicos; política fiscal; política monetaria; política cambiaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N56 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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