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Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specified. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer. We find that this approach gives predictions that are consistent with the time series properties of Venezuela when i) the income efect of consumption more than compensates the substitution effect that generates the oil transfer and, ii) there is imperfect capital mobility. In particular, our model specification captures the observed patterns of the main aggregates after the oil resource boom of 1974.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco J. Sáez & Luis A. Puch, 2003. "Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0301, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    3. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    8. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    9. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. José U. Mora Mora, 2013. "Fluctuaciones económicas bajo régimen de cambio fijo en una economía pequena con dos sectores," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, June.
    2. José Ustorgio Mora Mora, 2013. "Fluctuaciones económicas en una economía pequena con dos sectores productivos bajo régimen de cambio flotante," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade shocks; Aggregate fuctuations; Emerging economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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