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Bonanzas, enfermedad holandesa y ciclo económico real en Colombia

Author

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  • Rodrigo Suescún

Abstract

“Los países en desarrollo están por lo general expuestos a ajustes macroeconómicos como resultado del comportamiento de los precios de los bienes primarios en los mercados mundiales. Con frecuencia, este proceso se acentúa debido al bajo grado de diversificación de la base exportadora. Este documento propone un modelo multisectorial de crecimiento, dinámico y estocástico que integra la literatura de ciclo económico real con la de economías con sectores en bonanza y Enfermedad Holandesa para analizar las fluctuaciones, la asignación de recursos y los cambios en precios relativos en una economía pequena y abierta, sujeta a choques en los términos de intercambio. El modelo es consistente con el comportamiento agregado y sectorial a través del ciclo, típico de estas economías, y racionaliza como un resultado eficiente los síntomas de la Enfermedad Holandesa que son a veces considerados como respuestas sub óptimas y como la justificación de la intervención gubernamental en países en desarrollo. El trabajo está organizado de la siguiente manera. La sección 2 describe el modelo de tres sectores y define el equilibrio competitivo para la economía. La sección 3 resume las características empíricas del ciclo económico de la economía colombiana y su relación con shocks en el precio del café; presenta el procedimiento de calibración y discute los resultados de simulación. La sección 4 se concentra en el patrón temporal de la asignación intersectorial de recursos asociada a bonanzas temporales de café, y la sección 5 evalúa el rol de las políticas de estabilización. En la sección 6 se presentan las conclusiones.”

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Suescún, 1997. "Bonanzas, enfermedad holandesa y ciclo económico real en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013529
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Enfermedad Holandesa; Bonanza Cafetera; Ciclos Económicos; Políticas de Estabilización; Estabilización Económica; Economía Cafetera; Café; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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