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La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Israel Fainboim
  • Mauricio Olivera
  • Julio César Alonso

Abstract

“La relevancia del análisis de sostenibilidad de la política fiscal para el caso colombiano no requiere amplias justificaciones. Basta decir que la mayor parte de las decisiones de política fiscal tomadas en la década de los noventa tienen efectos permanentes sobre el nivel de gasto público. El objetivo del análisis de sostenibilidad es el de determinar si existe la posibilidad de financiar el aumento de carácter permanente en el gasto público mediante los ingresos esperados por el gobierno en el mediano y largo plazo, o si se requiere de nuevos incrementos de impuestos y/o reducciones en el gasto para evitar déficits fiscales persistentes y un crecimiento sin límites de la deuda pública. El concepto de "sostenibilidad fiscal" alude en consecuencia a las restricciones de largo plazo que enfrenta la política fiscal, asociadas básicamente con la dinámica de la relación entre la deuda pública y el PIB. El propósito del análisis de sostenibilidad que se desarrolla en este artículo es el de comprobar de manera más rigurosa esta afirmación de que la política fiscal colombiana es insostenible. El artículo está dividido en tres secciones. En la primera se explican las características de las pruebas econométricas de sostenibilidad y se presentan sus resultados. En la segunda se muestran los resultados de las proyecciones de mediano plazo de las finanzas públicas colombianas. En la tercera se realizan varios ejercicios ilustrativos de los requerimientos de ajuste de las finanzas del Gobierno Central para estabilizar la relación deuda/PIB.”

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Fainboim & Mauricio Olivera & Julio César Alonso, 1997. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013522
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Bonet Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2018. "¿Hay pereza fiscal territorial en Colombia?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(2), pages 247-307, December.
    2. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Luis Montero-Mestre, 2018. "Las finanzas públicas territoriales en Colombia: dos décadas de cambios," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 16258, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    3. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz, 2001. "Descentralización en el Caribe colombiano: las finanzas departamentales en los noventas," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 2283, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política Fiscal; Modelos Econométricos; Deuda Pública; Gasto Público; Ingresos Fiscales; Sector Público; Proyecciones Económicas; Finanzas Públicas; Análisis Econométrico; Crecimiento Económico; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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