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Desalineación y variables fundamentales: tasas de cambio de equilibrio en siete países latinoamericanos

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Norman Loayza
  • Humberto López

Abstract

“La tasa de cambio real (TCR) es uno de los precios relativos más importantes de la economía. Desviaciones sostenidas de su nivel de equilibrio pueden llevar a desequilibrios macroeconómicos severos, cuya corrección "generalmente requerirá políticas de manejo de la demanda y una devaluación real" (Edwards 1994). Este trabajo examina el grado de desalineación de la tasa de Cambio real en Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México, Perú, Venezuela y Estados Unidos. Seguimos un modelo en el cual la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio es el valor compatible con una posición de balanza de pagos en la que, cualquier desequilibrio de la cuenta corriente es compensado por un flujo sostenible de capital extranjero (equilibrio externo) y el uso eficiente de recursos domésticos (equilibrio interno). Este trabajo modela la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio como el valor o la senda consistente con el equilibrio externo, esto es, una posición de balanza de pagos en la que cualquier desequilibrio en cuenta corriente es compensado con un flujo sostenible de capital internacional, y con el equilibrio interno, esto es, la utilización eficiente del capital y el trabajo domésticos. El resto del documento está estructurado de la siguiente forma. En la sección 2 se presenta un modelo ilustrativo de los determinantes de la tasa de cambio. La sección 3 vincula los conceptos de equilibrio económico y cointegración para el problema bajo análisis. En la sección 4 se estudian los principios econométricos que tienen que ver con la estimación del equilibrio no observado de largo plazo. En la sección 5 se describen los datos y en la sección 6 se presentan los resultados empíricos. El documento termina con algunas conclusiones en la sección.”

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Norman Loayza & Humberto López, 1997. "Desalineación y variables fundamentales: tasas de cambio de equilibrio en siete países latinoamericanos," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    2. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 5794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Tipo de Cambio; Tipo de Cambio Real; Cointegración; Modelos de Equilibrio General;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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