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Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique López E.
  • Martha Misas A.

Abstract

"En este trabajo se evalúa el patrón del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real, con base en la metodología Markov-Switching. Se encuentran dos estados de la naturaleza que acá se denominan como "equilibrio" y "sobre-revaluación". Se construyen índices de "ataques especulativos" y de destorcidas en cuenta corriente y se muestra que en general éstos se presentan durante o un poco después de la sobre-revaluación cambiaria. Se concluye que el concepto y la medición del desequilibrio poseen claras implicaciones normativas en Colombia, pues los períodos de sobre-revaluación están asociados, entre otros, con ataques especulativos, bajos niveles de crecimiento y alto desempleo." Abstract: "This paper evaluates real exchange rate misalignment patterns, based on Markov-Switching methodology. Two dominant states of nature are found: "equilibrium" and "over-valuation ". Speculative attack and current account distortion indices are constructed, and we find that these are generally found during or shortly alter over-revaluation. We conclude that the concept and disequilibrium measurement have clear normative implications for Colombia, given that periods of over-revaluation are associated with, among others, speculative attacks, low levels of economic growth, and high unemployment."

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gloria Alonso & Juan Nicolás Hernandez & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas alternativas de tasa de cambio real para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 514, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villaba, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 630, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 7959, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Xiomara García Moreno, Luz Mery Huertas Romero, Andrés Mauricio Pérez Vásquez, 2012. "Análisis Macroeconómico Comparativo Entre Colombia Y Los Paises Del Efta," Revista Isocuanta 12350, Universidad Santo Tomás.
    5. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7801, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coyuntura Económica; Informes de Investigación; Ataques Especulativos; Crecimiento Económico; Reevaluación de la Tasa de Cambio; VEC Estructural (SVEC); Tipo de Cambio; Cuenta Corriente; Revaluación; Modelo Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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