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Empleo del comportamiento estacional para mejorar el pronóstico de un commodity: el caso del mercado internacional del azúcar

Author

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  • Julio César Alonso
  • Andrés Mauricio Arcila

Abstract

Este trabajo estudia el comportamiento estacional de los precios internacionales del azúcar transados en Nueva York y Londres. Para este caso, empleando pruebas de raíces estacionales y una muestra mensual desde enero de 1989 hasta diciembre de 2010, se encuentra la existencia de un comportamiento estacional estocástico no estacionario. Dicha conducta implica que un “verano” se puede convertir en un “invierno”, resultado que no había sido documentado previamente en estos mercados. Por otro lado, empleando dicho hallazgo, los resultados muestran que es posible construir un modelo autorregresivo de media móvil que se comporta relativamente mejor al pronosticar el precio frente a un modelo que no tiene en cuenta dicho tipo de estacionalidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio César Alonso & Andrés Mauricio Arcila, 2013. "Empleo del comportamiento estacional para mejorar el pronóstico de un commodity: el caso del mercado internacional del azúcar," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000129:011429
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    File URL: http://www.icesi.edu.co/revistas/index.php/estudios_gerenciales/article/view/1736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Julio César Alonso & Paul Seeman, 2010. "Prueba de HEGY en R: Una guía," Apuntes de Economía 9098, Universidad Icesi.
    5. J. Austin Murphy, 1987. "The Seasonality of Risk and Return on Agricultural Futures Positions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 639-646.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Arcila Vásquez, Andrés Mauricio & Montenegro Arana, Sebastián, 2016. "Herramientas de estabilización de los precios internos del azúcar en Colombia: ¿Funcionan?," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 105-126, December.
    2. Julio César Alonso Cifuentes & Andrés Mauricio Arcila Vásquez & Sebastián Montenegro Arana, 2017. "Internal price stabilization tools in the Colombian sugar market: Do they work?," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 105-126, Enero - J.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comportamiento estacional Mercado del azúcar SARIMAARMARaíces unitarias;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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