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Demografie-Prognoseschwäche, Arbeitsmarkt und Pensionsfinanzierung

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  • Gunther Tichy

Abstract

In einer vorhergehenden Studie hatte der Autor gezeigt, dass die übliche Argumentation, dass jeder ,Junge' in Zukunft doppelt so viele ,Alte' erhalten müsse, zwar nicht unrichtig, aber irreführend ist. Betroffen seien nicht alle, sondern bloß die arbeitenden Jungen, und diese müssten nicht bloß die ,Alten', sondern alle Nicht-Arbeitenden erhalten, also auch Kinder und Jugendliche, Arbeitslose und Frühpensionistlnnen. Schon derzeit müsse jeder Arbeitende einen Nicht-Arbeitenden erhalten; die Relation werde sich in Zukunft bloß geringfügig verschlechtern, weil zwar mehr ,Alte', aber weniger aus den anderen Gruppen erhalten werden müssten. Da dafür auch ein merklich gestiegenes Volkseinkommen zur Verfügung stehen werde, sei die Pensionsfinanzierung keineswegs so dramatisch, wie üblicherweise dargestellt. Seither wurde die Bevölkerungsprognose dramatisch geändert: Die Bevölkerung wird nicht schrumpfen, sondern weiter wachsen, und die Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter wird erst 2020 und nicht schon 2010 abnehmen. Das mildert zwar die Probleme der Pensionsfinanzierung, doch zeigt eine Testrechnung, dass dadurch ernste Arbeitsmarktprobleme entstehen: Die erhoffte demografische Entlastung des Arbeitsmarkts verschiebt sich, und ohne wirksame Gegenmaßnahmen ist eine merkliche Entspannung des Arbeitsmarkts erst in etwa zwei Jahrzehnten zu erwarten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2006. "Demografie-Prognoseschwäche, Arbeitsmarkt und Pensionsfinanzierung," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 32(2), pages 149-165.
  • Handle: RePEc:clr:wugarc:y:2006v:32i:2p:149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Diamond, 1998. "The Economics of Social Security Reform," NBER Working Papers 6719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gunther Tichy, 2005. "Altern ist Leben - Ist es auch finanzierbar?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 107-130.
    3. Westerheide, Peter, 2001. "Kosten der privaten Altersvorsorge: Private Rentenversicherungen und Fondssparpläne im Vergleich," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Schiman, 2013. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich. Projektionen des Staatshaushalts bis 2050," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46670.
    2. Ewald Walterskirchen & Karl Aiginger & Sandra Steindl, 2006. "Teilstudie 2: Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Europa seit 1995," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27441.
    3. Sandra Steindl, 2006. "Potentialwachstum in Österreich. Schätzung und Diskussion der angebotsseitigen Wachstumschancen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 79(12), pages 881-891, December.
    4. Stefan Schiman, 2016. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich. Projektionen des Staatshaushalts bis 2060," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58802.

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