IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cje/issued/v42y2009i2p719-748.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Smart fund managers? Stupid money?

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Bernhardt
  • Ryan J. Davies

Abstract

We develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters. We show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows, near quarter-ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new investment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position. The short-term price impact of these trades increase the fund's reported returns. Higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which, in turn, allow for more investment distortion the next quarter. Because the price impact of trades is short term, each subsequent quarter begins with a larger return deficit. Eventually, the deficit cannot be overcome. Thus, our model leads to the empirically observed short-run persistence and long-run reversal in fund performance. In doing so, our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Bernhardt & Ryan J. Davies, 2009. "Smart fund managers? Stupid money?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 719-748, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:2:p:719-748
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01525.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01525.x
    Download Restriction: access restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01525.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    2. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 343-368, September.
    3. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    4. Lu Zheng, 1999. "Is Money Smart? A Study of Mutual Fund Investors' Fund Selection Ability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 901-933, June.
    5. Bernhardt, Dan & Davies, Ryan J., 2005. "Painting the tape: Aggregate evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 306-311, December.
    6. William N. Goetzmann & Nadav Peles, 1997. "Cognitive Dissonance And Mutual Fund Investors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 145-158, June.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2605-2622 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N, 1995. "Performance Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 679-698, June.
    9. Mark M. Carhart & Ron Kaniel & David K. Musto & Adam V. Reed, 2002. "Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 661-693, April.
    10. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1997. "Institutional Equity Trading Costs: NYSE versus Nasdaq," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 713-735, June.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Edelen, Roger M. & Warner, Jerold B., 2001. "Aggregate price effects of institutional trading: a study of mutual fund flow and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-220, February.
    13. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    16. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2006. "The Determinants and Implications of Mutual Fund Cash Holdings: Theory and Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 67-91, June.
    17. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36.
    18. Mark S. Seasholes & Terrence Hendershott, 2007. "Market Maker Inventories and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 210-214, May.
    19. Pinnuck, Matt, 2003. "An Examination of the Performance of the Trades and Stock Holdings of Fund Managers: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 811-828, December.
    20. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
    21. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, August.
    22. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. "The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-1174, September.
    23. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    24. Keim, Donald B. & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Transactions costs and investment style: an inter-exchange analysis of institutional equity trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 265-292, December.
    25. Bernhardt, Dan & Hughson, Eric, 2002. "Intraday trade in dealership markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1697-1732, October.
    26. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-835.
    27. William N. Goetzmann & Nadav Peles, 1997. "Cognitive Dissonance And Mutual Fund Investors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 145-158, June.
    28. Edelen, Roger M., 1999. "Investor flows and the assessed performance of open-end mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 439-466, September.
    29. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    30. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernhardt, Dan & Davies, Ryan J., 2005. "Painting the tape: Aggregate evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 306-311, December.
    2. Ying-Fen Fu, 2014. "Individual Fund Manager Sentiment, Fund Performance and Performance Persistence," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 870-885.
    3. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    4. Li, Xiangwen & Wu, Wenfeng, 2019. "Portfolio pumping and fund performance ranking: A performance-based compensation contract perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 94-106.
    5. Duong, Truong X. & Meschke, Felix, 2020. "The rise and fall of portfolio pumping among U.S. mutual funds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Tsung-Yu Hsieh, 2015. "Information disclosure and price manipulation during the pre-closing session: evidence from an order-driven market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4670-4684, September.
    7. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
    8. Kadıoğlu, Eyüp & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Manipulation in the bond market and the role of investment funds: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Jie Gao & Yang Feng & Zeshui Xu & Qianlin Luo, 2023. "Analysis of strategic deviance decisions considering investors’ risk aversion and the industrial earnings forecast errors," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 379-402, March.
    10. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Putnins, Talis J., 2011. "Measuring closing price manipulation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-158, April.
    11. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2014. "Stock Price Manipulation: Prevalence and Determinants," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 23-66.
    12. Chang, Rosita P. & Rhee, S. Ghon & Stone, Gregory R. & Tang, Ning, 2008. "How does the call market method affect price efficiency? Evidence from the Singapore Stock Market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2205-2219, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Xian Liu & Fuming Jiang & Jizhong Li & Omar Al Farooque, 2021. "Antecedents of Equity Fund Performance: A Contingency Perspective," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(01), pages 1-40, March.
    2. Ling, Leng & Arias, J.J., 2013. "Mutual fund flows and window-dressing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 440-449.
    3. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2011. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Nanda, Vikram K. & Wang, Z. Jay & Zheng, Lu, 2009. "The ABCs of mutual funds: On the introduction of multiple share classes," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 329-361, July.
    5. Carlos F. Alves & Victor Mendes, 2006. "Mutual fund flows’ performance reaction: does convexity apply to small markets?," FEP Working Papers 204, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2013. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2012. "Performance inconsistency in mutual funds: An investigation of window-dressing behavior," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lien, Donald & Kuo, Ming-Sin, 2020. "Window dressing in equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 338-354.
    10. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. David G. Shrider, 2009. "Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 987-1006.
    12. Andrew Clare & Mariana Clare, 2019. "An examination of ex ante fund performance: identifying indicators of future performance," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 175-195, May.
    13. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2008. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2379-2416, November.
    14. Lee, John Byong-Tek & Ma, Jun & Margaritis, Dimitris & Yang, Wanyi, 2023. "Is anti-herding always a smart choice? Evidence from mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Dariusz Filip, 2021. "A Review of Main Strands on the Flow-Performance Relationship of Mutual Funds," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 7(3), pages 245-256, July.
    16. Carlos Alves & Victor Mendes, 2011. "Does performance explain mutual fund flows in small markets? The case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 129-147, August.
    17. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Keswani, Aneel & Miguel, Antonio F. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2012. "The flow-performance relationship around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1759-1780.
    18. David G. Shrider, 2009. "Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 987-1006, September.
    19. Hitesh Doshi & Redouane Elkamhi & Mikhail Simutin, 2015. "Managerial Activeness and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 156-184.
    20. Fulkerson, Jon A. & Riley, Timothy B., 2019. "Portfolio concentration and mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:2:p:719-748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof. Werner Antweiler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.