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China's Emergence and the Implications of Prospective Free Trade Agreements in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Hiro Lee

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

  • David Roland-Holst

    (Department of Economics, Mills College Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley, USA)

  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

    (The World Bank, Washington, USA)

Abstract

China's accelerated global emergence has changed trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and exerted important influence on its trilateral relationship with Japan and the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of multilateral and regional trade policy scenarios that are particularly relevant to China, Japan, and the United States using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that the three countries would gain substantially from a trilateral free trade agreement and could realize large fractions of the residual gains from global trade liberalization. We contrast this with prospective free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia, and we find that these FTAs largely benefit smaller member economies (e.g., ASEAN countries).

Suggested Citation

  • Hiro Lee & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2004. "China's Emergence and the Implications of Prospective Free Trade Agreements in East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 156, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:156
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    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/dp156.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
    2. John Weiss, 2010. "People’s Republic of China and its Neighbors: Partners or Competitors for Trade and Investment?," Working Papers id:3303, eSocialSciences.
    3. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
    4. repec:rim:rimwps:12-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tsung-Chen Lee (Correspondnce author) & Shiao-Wei Lo & Wen-Cheng Lin, 2017. "A Comparison Study on ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreements using CGE Model," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 8, pages 79-95, May.
    6. Buhara Aslan & Merve Mavus Kutuk & Arif Oduncu, 2015. "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 22-43, November.
    7. David Roland‐Holst & John Weiss, 2005. "People's Republic of China and its Neighbours: evidence on regional trade and investment effects," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 19(2), pages 18-35, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FTA; China; East Asia; Trilateralism; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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