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Kräftiger Aufschwung dank günstigem Öl und schwachem Euro

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

Am 16. April 2015 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach befindet sich die deutsche Wirtschaft in einem kräftigen Aufschwung. Sie wird stimuliert von unerwarteten expansiven Impulsen, insbesondere dem Verfall des Ölpreises und der starken Abwertung des Euro. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich um 2,1% steigen. Das 68%-Prognoseintervall reicht dabei von 1,4 bis 2,8%. Dabei ist der Konsum die Stütze des Aufschwungs. Zudem gehen vom übrigen Euroraum wieder leicht positive Impulse aus, so dass auch der Außenhandel zur Expansion beiträgt. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte sich das Tempo nur wenig verlangsamen. Die Abwertung des Euro wird die Konjunktur dabei weiter beleben, während die positiven Effekte des gesunkenen Ölpreises auslaufen. Die öffentlichen Haushalte dürften in diesem und im nächsten Jahr mit deutlichen Überschüssen von jeweils über 20 Mrd. Euro abschließen. Angesichts struktureller Überschüsse ist die Gelegenheit jetzt günstig, den Einkommensteuertarif – insbesondere im Bereich kleiner und mittlerer Einkommen – leistungsfreundlicher zu gestalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2015. "Kräftiger Aufschwung dank günstigem Öl und schwachem Euro," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(08), pages 03-73, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:08:p:03-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Robert Lerman, 2006. "Recycling petrodollars," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Dec).
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    1. Döhrn, Roland, 2015. "Prognosen für 2015 im Rückblick," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(4), pages 35-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltwirtschaft; Weltkonjunktur; Wirtschaftsprognose; Deutschland; Welt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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