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Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

Author

Listed:
  • Nurtac Yildirim

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Oguzhan Ozcelebi

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Seval Oral Ozkan

    (Istanbul University Beyazit Campus, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC) models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan). Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurtac Yildirim & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Seval Oral Ozkan, 2015. "Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 11-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:33:y:2015:i:1:p:11-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    2. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegiæ & Mirela Momèiloviæ, 2018. "Bidirectional spillover effect between Russian stock index and the selected commodities," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 29-53.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil-importing countries; oil price increases; inflation; monetary policy; SVEC model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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