IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v68y2015i06p33-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die ifo Ertragslageurteile als Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Ebnet

Abstract

Während amtliche Daten zur Umsatzentwicklung unterjährig zur Verfügung stehen und vergleichsweise zeitnah vorliegen, weisen die nur jährlich erscheinenden Strukturstatistiken in der Regel einen erheblichen zeitlichen Verzug auf. Aussagen über die aktuelle Ertragssituation in einem Wirtschaftssektor bzw. einer Branche sind dadurch besonders schwierig – zumal die Umsätze zwar eine elementare, aber nicht die alleinige Determinante der Ertragsentwicklung sind. Eine Überprüfung, ob die im Rahmen des ifo Konjunkturtests im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe erhobene Einschätzung der Unternehmen zu ihrer aktuellen Ertragslage die durch den zeitlichen Nachlauf der amtlichen Statistik aufklaffende Informationslücke schließen kann, zeigt, dass für das Verarbeitenden Gewerbe insgesamt und zahlreiche seiner Branchen ein hoher Gleichlauf von den auf amtlicher Datenbasis ermittelten Ergebniswerten und den Resultaten der ifo-Erhebung herrscht. Das heißt, die ifo Ertragslageurteile sind im Fall des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes insgesamt sowie der Vielzahl seiner Branchen ein relativ zuverlässiger und präziser Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ebnet, 2015. "Die ifo Ertragslageurteile als Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(06), pages 33-39, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:06:p:33-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2015_06_4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(4), pages 609-618.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Werner, Thomas & Sell, Friedrich L. & Reinisch, David C., 2013. "Price effects of minimum wages: Evidence from the construction sector in East and West Germany," Working Papers in Economics 2013,4, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    2. Thomas Strobel & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Analysing the Structure of German Investments – The Ifo Investment Database," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(01), pages 64-68, May.
    3. Thomas Strobel & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Investment Database," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 133(3), pages 449-460.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Chef oder Praktikant – wer beantwortet eigentlich die Fragebögen in den ifo Konjunkturumfragen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 30-32, February.
    6. Boumans Dorine & Garnitz Johanna, 2017. "Ifo World Economic Survey Database – An International Economic Expert Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 71-80, February.
    7. Schauer, Catharina & Elsas, Ralf & Breitkopf, Nikolas, 2019. "A new measure of financial constraints applicable to private and public firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 270-295.
    8. Stefan Sauer, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen: Ein Überblick über die verfügbaren Zeitreihen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 45-48, February.
    9. James R. Hines & Niklas Potrafke & Marina Riem & Christoph Schinke, 2019. "Inter vivos transfers of ownership in family firms," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 225-256, April.
    10. Christian Seiler, 2014. "The determinants of unit non-response in the Ifo Business Survey," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(3), pages 161-177, September.
    11. Marina Riem, 2016. "Does political uncertainty influence firm owners‘ business perceptions?," ifo Working Paper Series 226, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. D'Acunto, Francesco & Weber, Michael & Yang, Shuyao, 2017. "Manpower Constraints and Corporate Policies," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168109, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Sauer,Stefan & Klaus Wohlrabe & Stefan Sauer, 2019. "CEO or Intern − Who Actually Answers the Questionnaires in the ifo Business Survey?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(02), pages 29-31, July.
    14. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Multilateral Loans and Interest Rates: Further Evidence on the Seniority Conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 169-178, April.
    15. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "Die ifo Konjunkturbefragungen im Dienstleistungssektor – Hintergründe, Erklärungen und Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    17. Thomas Strobel & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Analysing the Structure of German Investments – The Ifo Investment Database," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(1), pages 64-68, May.
    18. Dorine Boumans & Henrik Müller & Stefan Sauer, 2022. "How Media Content Influences Economic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Expert Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 380, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. Demmelhuber Katrin & Sauer Stefan & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2023. "Beyond the Business Climate: Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 169-182, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Prognoseverfahren; Branchenentwicklung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:06:p:33-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.