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Die ifo Ertragslageurteile als Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe

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  • Michael Ebnet

Abstract

Während amtliche Daten zur Umsatzentwicklung unterjährig zur Verfügung stehen und vergleichsweise zeitnah vorliegen, weisen die nur jährlich erscheinenden Strukturstatistiken in der Regel einen erheblichen zeitlichen Verzug auf. Aussagen über die aktuelle Ertragssituation in einem Wirtschaftssektor bzw. einer Branche sind dadurch besonders schwierig – zumal die Umsätze zwar eine elementare, aber nicht die alleinige Determinante der Ertragsentwicklung sind. Eine Überprüfung, ob die im Rahmen des ifo Konjunkturtests im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe erhobene Einschätzung der Unternehmen zu ihrer aktuellen Ertragslage die durch den zeitlichen Nachlauf der amtlichen Statistik aufklaffende Informationslücke schließen kann, zeigt, dass für das Verarbeitenden Gewerbe insgesamt und zahlreiche seiner Branchen ein hoher Gleichlauf von den auf amtlicher Datenbasis ermittelten Ergebniswerten und den Resultaten der ifo-Erhebung herrscht. Das heißt, die ifo Ertragslageurteile sind im Fall des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes insgesamt sowie der Vielzahl seiner Branchen ein relativ zuverlässiger und präziser Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ebnet, 2015. "Die ifo Ertragslageurteile als Indikator für die Ertragsentwicklung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(06), pages 33-39, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:06:p:33-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(4), pages 609-618.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Prognoseverfahren; Branchenentwicklung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

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