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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2009: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Gefolge der dramatischen Zuspitzung der Weltfinanzkrise hatte das ifo Institut in seiner Prognose zum Jahresende 2008 die Perspektiven für Deutschland im Vergleich zum Gemeinschaftsgutachten vom Oktober deutlich zurückgenommen, den konjunkturellen Einbruch aber immer noch unterschätzt. Der jahresdurchschnittliche Prognosefehler in Höhe von 2,8 Prozentpunkten geht zu einem beträchtlichen Teil auf die Unterschätzung des statistischen Unterhangs am Jahresende 2008 zurück. Der restliche Prognosefehler in Höhe von 1,7 Prozentpunkten ist durch eine Fehleinschätzung des konjunkturellen Verlaufs im Jahr 2009 verursacht. Alles in allem war die Rezession in Deutschland tiefer, als im Dezember 2008 vorhergesehen worden war.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2009: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(02), pages 30-33, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:02:p:30-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Statistische Methode; Wirtschaftskonjunktur; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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