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Wachstumseinbruch Mittel- und Osteuropas im Spiegel der Prognosen

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  • Michael Knogler
  • Wolfgang Quaisser

Abstract

In Folge der anhaltenden Finanzkrise haben sich die globalen Wachstumsperspektiven dramatisch eingetrübt. Während für die mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Länder einschließlich der GUS-Staaten zunächst keine unmittelbaren Folgen der Finanzkrise vorhergesagt wurden, zeichnet sich nun ab, dass viele dieser Länder vom globalen Wirtschaftsabschwung noch massiver betroffen sind als die großen Industrieländer. Michael Knogler, Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg, und Wolfgang Quaisser, Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg, und Akademie für Politische Bildung Tutzing, stellen in ihrem Beitrag die Korrekturen der Wachstumsprognosen für Mittel- und Osteuropa vor. Die einzelnen Staaten und Ländergruppen werden, den Prognosen zufolge, von der Finanzkrise und den Wirkungen der globalen Rezession verschiedenartig getroffen. Dies trägt der Tatsache Rechnung, dass die Konjunktur bzw. die Exportnachfrage einzelner Länder auf unterschiedliche Weise durch Kapitalströme, Wechselkurse und geldpolitische Konsequenzen beeinträchtigt wird. Auch spielen länderspezifische Faktoren – u.a. die Intensität binnen- und außenwirtschaftlicher Ungleichgewichte sowie die Abhängigkeit von den Rohstoffpreisen – eine wichtige Rolle. Vor dem Hintergrund der jüngsten IWF-Prognose, die von dem stärksten Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft seit 1945 und einem Rückgang der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung von 1,3% in 2009 ausgeht, wurden auch die Wachstumsprognosen für Mittel- und Osteuropa stark nach unten korrigiert. Die deutlichste Korrektur erfuhren innerhalb der GUS-Staaten die Prognosen für Russland, die Ukraine und Kasachstan. Innerhalb der EU haben die neuen Mitgliedsländer – besonders die baltischen Staaten, aber auch die Slowakei, Bulgarien und Rumänien – zum Teil stärkere Rückschläge zu verkraften als die Altmitglieder. Zusätzlich haben die krisenhaften Entwicklungen in Ungarn und Lettland die Frage nach der ökonomischen Stabilität in den EU-10-Ländern in den Vordergrund gerückt.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Knogler & Wolfgang Quaisser, 2009. "Wachstumseinbruch Mittel- und Osteuropas im Spiegel der Prognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(09), pages 26-33, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:09:p:26-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2008. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," IMF Working Papers 2008/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2009. "Die neuen EU-Länder am Abgrund: Was tun?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(3), pages 123-131.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunkturprognose; Ostmitteleuropa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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