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Aufschwung legt Pause ein

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

Am 18. Oktober 2007 stellten die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute der Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach wird die Weltwirtschaft im Herbst 2007 immer noch kräftig expandieren, doch die konjunkturellen Risiken haben sich erhöht. Die durch die Immobilienkrise in den USA ausgelösten Probleme an den Finanzmärkten haben zu einer Neueinschätzung von Kreditrisiken geführt. Vielfach wird befürchtet, dies könnte die Finanzierungskosten für Unternehmen erhöhen und die realwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten belasten. Das wohl größte Risiko für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft geht von der Immobilienkrise in den USA aus. Sie könnte sich deutlich länger hinziehen und damit die US- Konjunktur merklicher schwächen als in dieser Prognose unterstellt. Die Folgen der rezessiven Tendenzen in den USA für den Euroraum könnten dadurch verstärkt werden, dass der Euro gegenüber dem Dollar aufwertet.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:20:p:03-58
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    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2008: Folgen der US-Immobilienkrise belasten Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(08), pages 03-71, April.
    2. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2007. "Ausrüstungsboom überschreitet den Höhepunkt – Geschäftserwartungen im Leasing tendieren zur Seite," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(23), pages 32-35, December.
    3. Bert Rürup, 2008. "Für einen moderatenallgemeinen Mindestlohn," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(06), pages 05-07, March.
    4. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Abschwächung der Konjunktur in Deutschland - was nun zu tun ist," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4307, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Gebhardt, Heinz & Siemers, Lars-H. R., 2007. "Haushaltsgesetz 2008 und Finanzplanung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen 2007 - 2011: Drucksache 14/4600," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70838, Fall.
    7. Boss, Alfred, 2007. "Wohin mit den Überschüssen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit?," Kiel Working Papers 1384, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    9. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages .28-32, February.
    10. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Van Roye, Björn & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 449/450, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Tools of Compensating for Inflation," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 13(4), pages 144-155, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltkonjunktur; Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftslage; Deutschland; Welt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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