IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v57y2004i16p21-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Berlemann

Abstract

In den späten achtziger Jahren kam eine neue Prognosetechnik zur Anwendung: die Veranstaltung so genannter "experimenteller Aktienmärkte". Diese Technik wurde zunächst vorrangig im Bereich der Wahlprognose eingesetzt, später fand sie auch in anderen Bereichen Anwendung, so z.B. bei der betriebsinternen Projektüberwachung oder der Voraussage des Ausgangs von Referenden. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt die grundlegende Idee der Veranstaltung experimenteller Prognosemärkte dar und gibt einen Überblick über die bisher vorliegende empirische Evidenz. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass experimentelle Prognosemärkte eine sinnvolle Ergänzung zu existierenden Prognosemethoden sein können und sich auch zur Prognose makroökonomischer Eckdaten eignen. Insofern könnten sie in der Zukunft eine Ergänzung des traditionellen Konjunkturprognose-Instrumentariums darstellen.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:16:p:21-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2004_16_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1996. "'Passauer Wahlbörse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 171-204, May.
    4. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    6. Michal Hlaváček & Adam Geršl & Tomáš Cahlík & Michael Berlemann, 2003. "Predikce využívající experimentální trhy [Predictions using experimental markets]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(6), pages 838-850.
    7. Eichberger, Jurgen & Harper, Ian R., 1997. "Financial Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775409.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    4. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    6. Michal Hlaváček & Adam Geršl & Tomáš Cahlík & Michael Berlemann, 2003. "Predikce využívající experimentální trhy [Predictions using experimental markets]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(6), pages 838-850.
    7. Jan Hansen & Carsten Schmidt & Martin Strobel, 2004. "Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 459-463.
    8. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    9. Gregor Bruggelambert, 2004. "Information and efficiency in political stock markets: using computerized markets to predict election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 753-768.
    10. Berlemann, Michael, 2008. "Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 379-383, May.
    11. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1994. "Behaviour of a Small Political Call Market," Experimental 9410001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bonhomme, Stphane & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Consistent noisy independent component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 12-25, April.
    14. Andros Gregoriou & Christos Ioannidis, 2007. "Generalized method of moments and present value tests of the consumption-capital asset pricing model under transactions costs: evidence from the UK stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 19-39, April.
    15. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    16. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2005. "The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APTmodelling," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(6), pages 19-33, November.
    17. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    18. Shaikh, Salman, 2013. "Investment Decisions by Analysts: A Case Study of KSE," MPRA Paper 53802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    20. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2011. "Approximate Derivative Pricing for Large Classes of Homogeneous Assets with Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 237-280, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Aktienmarkt; Experiment; Prognose; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:16:p:21-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.