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The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APT-modelling

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  • Entorf, Horst
  • Jamin, Gösta

Abstract

We estimate the impact of dollar changes on the value of German DAX corporations, using APT-modelling for the period 1977 - 1995. Several macroeconomic risk factors, including the dollar and a residual market factor representing the general market risk, are specified. The general notion is that the export-oriented German companies should benefit from increasing dollar values. We find time-varying dollar exposure presumably depending on the prevailing trade regime. Dollar sensitivity is positive as expected in periods with a positive trade balance, whereas it turns negative in periods with a negative trade balance (e.g., in the first half of the 1980s). APT-modelling simultaneously considers exchange rate exposure and risk-premia of macroeconomic risk factors, the latter also being unstable over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Entorf, Horst & Jamin, Gösta, 2003. "The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APT-modelling," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 127, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_20146
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    1. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2007. "German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 344-374, August.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
    4. Entorf, Horst & Kabbalakes, M., 1998. "Der Dollar und der deutsche Aktienmarkt : eine Analyse des Zusammenhangs auf Branchenebene," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24115, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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