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Verändert der Flüchtlingsansturm Deutschland?

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger

Abstract

In den nächsten Jahren wird in Deutschland die Zahl der Geburten die Sterbefälle nicht ausgleichen können. Dank des Netto-Zustroms von Flüchtlingen wird die Bevölkerung trotzdem weiter wachsen. Von 81,2Mill. Menschen Ende 2014 wird die Bevölkerung bis Ende 2020 auf 83,6Mill. (Szenario 1) bis 85,2Mill. Menschen (Szenario 2) zunehmen. Aber auch dann werden die Deutschen ohne Migrationshintergrund im Landes - durchschnitt noch weit davon entfernt sein, in die Minderheit zu geraten. Auf der regionalen Ebene liegen die Verhältnisse z.T. anders. Die Tendenz bei Zuwanderern sich dort anzusiedeln, wo bereits Menschen gleicher Herkunft wohnen, könnte dazu führen, dass in den Städten und Landkreisen, die schon bisher einen hohen Anteil an Personen mit Migrationshintergrund haben, die Deutschen in die Minderheit geraten. Gesell - schaftlich verträglicher wird der Zustrom umso eher sein, je besser es gelingt, ihn regional auf möglichst viele Städte und Gemeinden zu verteilen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2015. "Verändert der Flüchtlingsansturm Deutschland?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(06), pages 10-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:22:y:2015:i:06:p:10-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Panu Poutvaara, 2015. "Einwanderung: Welchen Nutzen hat die einheimische Bevölkerung?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), September.
    2. Volker Meier, 2015. "Steuerung der Flüchtlingsströme durch Preise und Kapazitäten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), pages 52-54, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Einwanderung; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Altersstruktur; Bevölkerungsprognose; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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