IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/052017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

By simulating various (labour market) integration scenarios with the aid of a New Keynesian DSGE model, this paper explores the potential economic consequences and transmission mechanisms resulting from the recent refugee migration to Germany. We find that the long-run costs and benefits for domestic agents depend critically on the skill levels migrants will obtain in the long run. A failure to integrate the about 800,000 migrants (equivalent to 1% of initial German population) could reduce per capita output and consumption by 0.43% and 0.48%, respectively, while integration measures that improve their qualification structure could even yield per capita output and consumption gains of 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively. Measures that cause the migrant qualification structure to closely match that of the native population over the long term do not lead to significant changes in GDP and consumption. Overall, our model simulations suggest that the macroeconomic impact of refugee migration is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Stähler, Nikolai, 2017. "A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany," Discussion Papers 05/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157252/1/884260739.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007. "Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336.
    2. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    4. Eric Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Susan Shu-Chun Yang, 2009. "Government Investment And Fiscal Stimulus In The Short And Long Runs," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    5. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    6. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Panu Poutvaara, 2015. "Einwanderung: Welchen Nutzen hat die einheimische Bevölkerung?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), September.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2017. "On the economics and politics of refugee migration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 497-550.
    10. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    11. Beyer, Robert, 2016. "The Labor Market Performance of Immigrants in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145799, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
    13. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Ascari, Guido & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 126-131, February.
    15. Joakim Ruist, 2015. "The Fiscal Cost of Refugee Immigration: The Example of Sweden," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 567-581, December.
    16. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    17. Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), 2013. "International Handbook on the Economics of Migration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4026.
    18. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On Employment And The Real Wage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 217-244, February.
    19. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    20. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
    21. Cavallari, Lilia, 2010. "Exports and foreign direct investments in an endogenous-entry model with real and nominal uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 300-313, March.
    22. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Prammer, Doris & Stähler, Nikolai & Tasso, Martino & Van Parys, Stefan, 2016. "Budget-neutral labour tax wedge reductions: A simulation-based analysis for selected euro area countries," Discussion Papers 26/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    24. Olof Åslund & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Do when and where matter? initial labour market conditions and immigrant earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 422-448, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ademmer, Esther & Barslund, Mikkel & Benček, David & Di Salvo, Mattia & Groll, Dominik & Hoxhaj, Rezart & Kadkoy, Omar & Lanati, Mauro & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya & Lücke, Matthias & Ludolph, Lars & Pizzu, 2018. "2018 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. Flexible Solidarity: A comprehensive strategy for asylum and immigration in the EU," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 182240.
    2. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Benjamín García & Juan Guerra-Salas, 2020. "On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 872, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Olovsson, Conny & Walentin, Karl & Westermark, Andreas, 2021. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration," Working Paper Series 405, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 May 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enders Almira & Groll Dominik & Stähler Nikolai, 2020. "Parity funding of health care contributions in Germany: A DSGE perspective," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-233, June.
    2. Dirk Bursian & Nikolai Stähler, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of increased wage flexibility in EMU," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 69-83, January.
    3. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2015. "German and the rest of euro area fiscal policy during the crisis," Discussion Papers 05/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    5. Stähler, Nikolai & Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2014. "Getting into GEAR: German and the Rest of Euro Area Fiscal Policy During the Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100460, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Niklas Gadatsch & Josef Hollmayr & Nikolai Stähler, 2019. "Thoughts on a Fiscal Union in EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 360-384, November.
    7. Maria Manuel Campos & Cristina Checherita-Westphal, 2019. "Economic consequences of high public debt and challenges ahead for the euro area," Working Papers o201904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    9. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    10. Maria-Grazia Attinasi & Doris Prammer & Nikolai Stähler & Martino Tasso & Stefan van Parys, 2019. "Budget-Neutral Labor Tax Wedge Reductions: A Sumulation-Based Analysis for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 1-54, October.
    11. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    12. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2021. "Can public spending boost private consumption?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1275-1313, November.
    13. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Huixin Bi, 2009. "Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints," IMF Working Papers 2009/286, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    16. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    17. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area [Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549.
    18. Bi, Huixin & Kumhof, Michael, 2011. "Jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules under liquidity constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 373-389, September.
    19. Christoph Bierbrauer, 2017. "National Fiscal Stimulus Packages And Consolidation Strategies In A Monetary Union," IEER Working Papers 110, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    20. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugee Migration; Labour Market Integration; Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.