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A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany

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  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

By simulating various (labour market) integration scenarios with the aid of a New Keynesian DSGE model, this paper explores the potential economic consequences and transmission mechanisms resulting from the recent refugee migration to Germany. We find that the long-run costs and benefits for domestic agents depend critically on the skill levels migrants will obtain in the long run. A failure to integrate the about 800,000 migrants (equivalent to 1% of initial German population) could reduce per capita output and consumption by 0.43% and 0.48%, respectively, while integration measures that improve their qualification structure could even yield per capita output and consumption gains of 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively. Measures that cause the migrant qualification structure to closely match that of the native population over the long term do not lead to significant changes in GDP and consumption. Overall, our model simulations suggest that the macroeconomic impact of refugee migration is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Stähler, Nikolai, 2017. "A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany," Discussion Papers 05/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052017
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    Cited by:

    1. Ademmer, Esther & Barslund, Mikkel & Benček, David & Di Salvo, Mattia & Groll, Dominik & Hoxhaj, Rezart & Kadkoy, Omar & Lanati, Mauro & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya & Lücke, Matthias & Ludolph, Lars & Pizzu, 2018. "2018 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. Flexible Solidarity: A comprehensive strategy for asylum and immigration in the EU," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 182240.
    2. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Benjamín García & Juan Guerra-Salas, 2020. "On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 872, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Olovsson, Conny & Walentin, Karl & Westermark, Andreas, 2021. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration," Working Paper Series 405, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 May 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugee Migration; Labour Market Integration; Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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