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Regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen bis 2030: Ergebnisse einerProjektionsrechnung

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  • Michael Berlemann
  • Julia Freese
  • Marc-André Luik
  • Joachim Ragnitz
  • Jan-Erik Wesselhöft

Abstract

Das BUNDESMINISTERIUM FÜR VERKEHR UND DIGITALE INFRASTRUKTUR arbeitet derzeit an der Aufstellung eines neuen Bundesverkehrswegeplans, der bis zum Jahr 2015 vorgelegt werden soll. Eine wichtige Grundlage hierfür ist eine realistische Vorausschätzung der künftigen Verkehrsentwicklung in Deutschland nach Regionen und Verkehrsträgern. Diese wiederum muss sich auf kleinräumige Prognosen über die künftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland stützen. Die vorgestellten Ergebnisse der Projektionsrechnungen deuten darauf hin, dass die Wachstumsperspektiven Ostdeutschlands langfristig zwar positiv sind, die erreichten Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts aber doch unter jahresdurchschnittlich einem Prozent liegen. Sie bleiben damit hinter der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklung für Westdeutschland zurück. Es ist allerdings auch zu beachten, dass sich der zentrale Wohlstandsindikator, das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen, deutlich günstiger entwickeln wird. So wächst das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen Ostdeutschlands laut der durchgeführten Projektionsrechnung im Jahresdurchschnitt um immerhin 1,33 % und damit in etwa genauso stark wie in Westdeutschland.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese & Marc-André Luik & Joachim Ragnitz & Jan-Erik Wesselhöft, 2014. "Regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen bis 2030: Ergebnisse einerProjektionsrechnung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(05), pages 34-43, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:21:y:2014:i:05:p:34-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Sturgeon & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Gary Gereffi, 2008. "Value chains, networks and clusters: reframing the global automotive industry," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 297-321, May.
    2. Murata, Yasusada, 2008. "Engel's law, Petty's law, and agglomeration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 161-177, August.
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    1. Alexander Eck & Carolin Fritzsche & Jan Kluge & Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel, 2015. "Fiscal Capacity and Determining Structural Characteristics of the Eastern German Laender," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 76, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volkswirtschaft; Wirtschaftslage; Regionale Entwicklung; Verkehrsplanung; Verkehrsaufkommen; Verkehrsinfrastruktur; Neue Bundesländer; Sachsen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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