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Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte verminderter Transferzahlungen für die ostdeutschen Bundesländer

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kloß
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Joachim Ragnitz
  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

Die regionale Wirtschaftskraft, gemessen als Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner in Kaufkraftstandards, dürfte aller Voraussicht nach auch in der kommenden EU-Strukturfondsperiode 2014–2020 als Kriterium für die Vergabe des Förderstatus dienen. tatsächlich dürfte dieser Indikator aber die Wirtschaftskraft in den ostdeutschen Regionen überzeichnen, da diese in hohem Maße von Transferzahlungen abhängig sind. Die Frage, inwieweit eine Kürzung der Ausgleichszahlungen zu einem Rückgang der wirtschaftlichen Leistungsfähigkeit der ostdeutschen Bundesländer führt, kann mit Hilfe eines makroökonomischen Simulationsmodells beantwortet werden. Rechnungen mit Hilfe des HERMIN-Modells zeigen, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt gegenüber einem Szenario ohne Rückführungen der Transferleistungen um bis zu 2 % niedriger liegen dürfte. Der Grenzwert für die Abgrenzung der Strukturfonds-Förderregionen wird damit jedoch aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach nicht unterschritten werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte verminderter Transferzahlungen für die ostdeutschen Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(01), pages 21-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:19:y:2012:i:01:p:21-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Declining transfer payments on the economic performance in Eastern Germany," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63, May.
    2. Blum, Ulrich & Ragnitz, Joachim & Freye, Sabine & Scharfe, Simone & Schneider, Lutz, 2009. "Regionalisierung öffentlicher Ausgaben und Einnahmen: Eine Untersuchung am Beispiel der Neuen Länder," IWH-Sonderhefte 4/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2012. "Verlieren die ostdeutschen Bundesländer zukünftig die EU-Strukturförderung?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 33-36, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investitionspolitik; Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse; Neue Bundesländer; Alte Bundesländer; Öffentlicher Finanztransfer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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