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How can recessions be brought to an end? Effects of macroeconomic policy actions on durations of recessions

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  • Bedri Kamil Onur Taş

    (TOBB University of Economics and Technology)

  • Hüseyin Ekrem Cunedioğlu

    (Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey)

Abstract

This paper analyzes how effective macroeconomic policy actions are in ending recessions. We also investigate which structural factors help the country to experience shorter recessions. We implement survival regression analysis and conclude that expansionary monetary policy significantly decreases durations of recessions whereas fixing the exchange rate does not have an effect on the durations of recessions. Expansionary fiscal policy has undesired effects and decreases the probability that recession will end, thus increasing the durations of recessions. The analysis of country specific factors indicates that emerging countries experience shorter recessions. Recessions in countries with higher trade openness last significantly longer. Financial openness and institutional quality do not have significant effects of recession durations. The empirical analysis takes into account alternative probability distributions and endogeneity of policy actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bedri Kamil Onur Taş & Hüseyin Ekrem Cunedioğlu, 2014. "How can recessions be brought to an end? Effects of macroeconomic policy actions on durations of recessions," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 17, pages 179-198, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:17:y:2014:n:1:p:179-198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    recession; macroeconomic policy; duration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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