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Forecasting Areca Nut Market Prices Using The Arima Model: A Case Study Of India

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  • ABHAYA K. KUMAR

    (DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MANGALORE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING, MOODABIDRI, INDIA)

  • PRAKASH PINTO

    (DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, ST. JOSEPH ENGINEERING COLLEGE, VAMANJOORU, MANGALORE, INDIA)

  • IQBAL THONSE HAWALDAR

    (DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING & FINANCE, COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, KINGDOM UNIVERSITY, SANAD, BAHRAIN)

  • CRISTI SPULBAR

    (FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, UNIVERSITY OF CRAIOVA, ROMANIA)

  • RAMONA BIRAU

    (C-TIN BRANCUSI UNIVERSITY OF TARGU JIU, FACULTY OF EDUCATION SCIENCE, LAW AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, ROMANIA)

  • MINEA ELENA LOREDANA

    (UNIVERSITY OF CRAIOVA, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, ROMANIA)

Abstract

India is the major producer of Areca nut in the world. Volatile demand and price are the major challenges for the Areca nut growers in India. The use of time series models to manage the price risk has become the interest of academicians today. This paper deals with developing an appropriate model to predict the prices of a new variety of Areca nut in Karnataka using monthly price data for the period January 2009 to December 2018. Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology is used to develop the model. Along with ARIMA estimates, log-likelihood, Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criterion statistics are also estimated to decide on the appropriate model. ACF and PACF correlograms for residuals of ARIMA are used to do the diagnostic check of the selected ARIMA model. Appropriate model to forecast the new variety Areca nut price is ARIMA (3, 1, 3).

Suggested Citation

  • Abhaya K. Kumar & Prakash Pinto & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Minea Elena Loredana, 2021. "Forecasting Areca Nut Market Prices Using The Arima Model: A Case Study Of India," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 4-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2021:v:2:p:4-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Bharat Kumar Meher & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Mathew Thomas Gil & Deebom Zorle Dum, 2021. "Measuring Leverage Effect of Covid 19 on Stock Price Volatility of Energy Companies Using High Frequency Data," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 489-502.
    2. Kepulaje Abhaya Kumar & Cristi Spulbar & Prakash Pinto & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Ramona Birau & Jyeshtaraja Joisa, 2022. "Using Econometric Models to Manage the Price Risk of Cocoa Beans: A Case from India," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.

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