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Instabilités politiques, guerre et croissance économique : le cas du Liban et des pays du Moyen-Orient

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  • Jean-François Verne

Abstract

This paper displays the war and political instabilities impact on the rate of the GDP growth concerning fifteen Middle-East countries and particularly Lebanon during the period of 1970-2013. It analyses the asymmetries in the variation of the rate of GDP growth of these fifteen countries and estimates endogenously a threshold of growth from which the political instabilities or war enhance two levels of impact on GDP growth. In this paper, we show that the economies of the fifteen countries go quickly from recession regime to growth regime and that the threshold of growth is seen to be high. This phenomenon concerns Lebanon specially that records also a certain resilience since its GDP evolution, which is very erratic notably during the civil war of 1975-1990, returns towards its long-run value rapidly after an exogenous shock.

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  • Jean-François Verne, 2016. "Instabilités politiques, guerre et croissance économique : le cas du Liban et des pays du Moyen-Orient," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 126(6), pages 1077-1103.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_266_1077
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    2. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.

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