How does single- or double-cropped rice policy influence spatially irrigated land value in China?

Rice cropped policy has been constantly changing, affecting the value of irrigated land. This study aims to examine distribution patterns of irrigated land value from a new perspective of uncertainties in single- and double-cropped rice policies in China. The real options approach was employed to calculate irrigated land value under policy uncertainty, and Moran's index was applied to identify the spatial distribution characteristics of irrigated land value at the provincial level. The empirical results were as follows: significantly positive spatial correlations existed between the land value under two cropped rice policies. The northeast region of China had a low-value clustering effect based on geographical characteristics. In contrast, the southern provinces of China had a high-value clustering effect based on the criteria of administrative regions. This study considered policy uncertainty when evaluating the economic effect on irrigated land when revealing spatial correlation in land value. We provide a theoretical and empirical basis for the formulation of cropped rice policies.