IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlage/v63y2017i7id372-2015-agricecon.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between the relative GDP share of agriculture and the unemployment rate in selected Central and Eastern European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Murad A. BEIN

    (Cyprus International University, Lefkosa, Turkey)

  • Serhan CIFTCIOGLU

    (Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, Turkey)

Abstract

The study empirically investigates the relationship between the relative GDP share of agriculture and the unemployment rate in a sample of ten Central and Eastern European countries. Utilising the annual data for the sample period 1996-2013, the empirical analysis is carried out using the dynamic panel regression analysis and the Granger causality tests. The estimation results based on the alternative specification of regression equations for the unemployment rate suggest that the unemployment rate is negatively related to the relative GDP share of agriculture. In addition, a similar effect has been obtained for some other explanatory variables we have included in the unemployment equation as controlling variables: higher investment rate and trade openness are likely to lower the rate of unemployment. The financial development has also been found to be negatively related to the unemployment rate, although the statistical significance of its effect depends on the estimation technique used. On the other hand, the GDP growth and the government consumption have been found to be insignificantly related to the unemployment rate. While the Granger causality tests performed for each country produced evidence of a causal effect of the relative GDP share of agriculture in some countries, in some other countries the direction of causality has been found to be from the unemployment rate to the relative GDP share of agriculture. Our findings suggest that agriculture may play a potential role in lowering the prevailing rates of high unemployment; but this potential is likely to vary between countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Murad A. BEIN & Serhan CIFTCIOGLU, 2017. "The relationship between the relative GDP share of agriculture and the unemployment rate in selected Central and Eastern European countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(7), pages 308-317.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:63:y:2017:i:7:id:372-2015-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/372/2015-AGRICECON
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/372/2015-AGRICECON.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/372/2015-AGRICECON.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/372/2015-AGRICECON?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    3. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    4. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kogel, Tomas & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2001. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 337-357, December.
    6. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    7. Xavier Irz & Lin Lin & Colin Thirtle & Steve Wiggins, 2001. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Poverty Alleviation," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 449-466, December.
    8. Philip G. Pardey & Julian M. Alston & Connie Chan-Kang, 2013. "Public agricultural R&D over the past half century: an emerging new world order," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 103-113, November.
    9. Dethier, Jean-Jacques & Effenberger, Alexandra, 2012. "Agriculture and development: A brief review of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-205.
    10. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-422, January.
    11. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    12. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(2), pages 145-152, September.
    13. Hwa, Erh-Cheng, 1988. "The contribution of agriculture to economic growth: Some empirical evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(11), pages 1329-1339, November.
    14. Lawler, K. & Katsouli, E. & Pallis, D., 2003. "The Impact of the agricultural sector on cyclical unemployment and output in EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gbolahan Olowu & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Murad Bein, 2019. "Does financial and agriculture sector development reduce unemployment rates? Evidence from Southern African countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 223-231.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Tiffin & Xavier Irz, 2006. "Is agriculture the engine of growth?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89, July.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Dietrich Vollrath, 2014. "Agricultural Technology and Structural Change," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-21, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    4. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2009. "Human capital and structural change: how do they interact with each others in growth," Post-Print hal-00798441, HAL.
    5. Shyamsundar, Priya & Ahlroth, Sofia & Kristjanson, Patricia & Onder, Stefanie, 2020. "Supporting pathways to prosperity in forest landscapes – A PRIME framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. N'dede Hourizene, Bley Cynthia & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2017. "Contributing to Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa through Value-Added Agriculture," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258333, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Sayef Bakari & Sofien Tiba, 2022. "Agricultural Exports, Agricultural Imports And Economic Growth In China," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 7(3), pages 35-61, September.
    8. Larson,Donald F. & Muraoka,Rie & Otsuka,Keijiro, 2016. "On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7710, The World Bank.
    9. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes and Total Labor Productivity in Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 77538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2013. "Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 367-382.
    11. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    12. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed & Tsimisaraka Raymondo Sandra Marcelline & Sabi Couscous Mouhamadou Nazirou, 2021. "Empirical Study of the Impact of Governance on Economic Structural Change: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(8), pages 260-277.
    13. McArthur, John W. & McCord, Gordon C., 2017. "Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 133-152.
    14. Daniel Francois Meyer, 2019. "An Assessment Of The Importance Of The Agricultural Sector On Economic Growth And Development In South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912288, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    15. Ioanna Apostolidou & Achilleas Kontogeorgos & Anastasios Michailidis & Efstratios Loizou, 2014. "The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth: A Comparison of Mediterranean and Northern Views in Europe," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(3), pages 81-102, December.
    16. Vollrath, Dietrich, 2009. "How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 325-334, March.
    17. Anubhab Gupta & Justin Kagin & J Edward Taylor & Mateusz Filipski & Lindi Hlanze & James Foster, 2018. "Is technology change good for cotton farmers? A local-economy analysis from the Tanzania Lake Zone," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 27-56.
    18. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Growth Takeoffs," UCLA Economics Online Papers 409, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:63:y:2017:i:7:id:372-2015-agricecon. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.